Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Assurant (AIZ)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$306.87-0.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.35 → 23.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AIZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase Adjusted EBITDA and EPS excluding catastrophes | Assurant grows adjusted EBITDA and EPS steadily. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA or EPS falls below 2026-Q1 levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We now expect Adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 10% and Adjusted earnings per share growth of low double digits, both excluding reportable catastrophes.” “We now expect Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted earnings per share growth of mid single digits or approximately 10% on an underlying basis, both excluding reportable catastrophes.” Revenue was $3.454 billion in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AIZ is an earnings-growth business with a stable management picture and recent financial performance rated strong. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has shifted from favorable to mildly favorable; confidence in the evidence is medium.
AIZ trades at a premium to peers, which the evidence describes as durable, and the valuation is tagged as justified. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be somewhat ahead of the model’s view; valuation evidence is medium confidence.
Through the first half of 2026, management’s priorities were on track: catastrophe-adjusted earnings grew, while Lifestyle and Housing premiums and earnings increased. Two recent earnings events were positive, but near-term miss risk is rated low rather than absent; a prior deep miss and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain cautions.
Over the next few quarters, a reversal of the guidance increase from August 2026 would challenge management credibility as well as the earnings outlook. A shift toward Fed rate cuts could weigh on AIZ and Financials, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as CB, PGR, and TRV would support sector momentum.
For the 1- to 3-year view, the business case rests on continued delivery of catastrophe-adjusted earnings growth and expanding Lifestyle and Housing results, against a premium valuation and moderate risks. The thesis remains intact, but its signal is less favorable than before. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Enhance Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA | Global Lifestyle EBITDA rises 20% in Q1 2026. | Intact | Global Lifestyle EBITDA falls below 2026-Q1 level | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near consensus | A supporting condition in Assurant's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth next fiscal year. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next fiscal year | Revenue growth: 9.22% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth next fiscal year. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20269.221724 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.50 → $23.36 · observed estimates
$14.79B → $14.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.44 | $14,679,630,374 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.44 | $14,679,630,374 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.56 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.50 | $14,785,350,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $22.85 | $14,674,530,374 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $23.16 | $14,653,333,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $23.16 | $14,653,333,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.16 | $14,653,333,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.16 | $14,653,333,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.16 | $14,653,333,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.16 | $14,653,333,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.85 | $14,674,530,374 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.85 | $14,674,530,374 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.85 | $14,674,530,374 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.85 | $14,674,530,374 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.85 | $14,674,530,374 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.85 | $14,674,530,374 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $23.25 | $14,787,313,060 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $23.25 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.35 | $14,721,125,480 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.35 | $14,720,354,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.35 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.35 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $23.36 | $14,720,411,194 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.