Assurant (AIZ)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$285.74-0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Assurant grows adjusted EBITDA and EPS steadily. Global Lifestyle EBITDA rises 20% in Q1 2026. The company beats EPS estimates consistently. Free cash flow yield is strong at 10%.
Growth could slow if Global Lifestyle segment weakens. EPS growth may stall below 7%. Competition or regulatory changes could pressure margins.
The price is about 6% below our fair value near $297. Analysts expect 7.5% revenue growth, which aligns with our view.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA or EPS falls below 2026-Q1 levels
Breaks if: Global Lifestyle EBITDA falls below 2026-Q1 level
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong within its industry.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that AIZ is seen as justified in its current valuation. It trades at a premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors expect continued solid performance.
Management is on track to achieve its goals of increasing adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share, particularly in the Global Lifestyle and Global Housing segments. While there is a low probability of missing earnings, recent trends show a slight downward shift in earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV, which could influence AIZ's growth trajectory. Additionally, any potential guidance cuts from AIZ could significantly impact credibility and market perception.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company raised its dividend and plans share repurchases. These actions show strong capital management. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Drive growth in Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA, focusing on Connected Living and Global Automotive.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next fiscal year
Drive growth in Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA, focusing on Connected Living and Global Automotive.
Overall, AIZ's fundamentals appear stable, but external sector performance will be crucial for its continued success. Not investment advice.