Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$254.69+1.97%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $254.69. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $255 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $220 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $211–$292. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $255.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $288.62 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $285.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $47.03 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$211.00 – $292.00 (median $255.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $154.77 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $46.00 | 16.5 | 2.78 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $194.24 | 2.1 | 92.58 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $98.55 | 13.6 | 7.24 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $190.31 | 16.5 | 11.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $196.52 | 3.4 | 58.24 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $331.05 | 28.8 | 11.50 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $107.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $279.76 | 24.3 | 11.50 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $191.43 | 16.5 | 11.57 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $77.41 | 16.5 | 4.68 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $295.41 | 2.1 | 140.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $149.88 | 13.6 | 11.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $305.65 | 16.5 | 18.47 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $298.98 | 3.4 | 88.60 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $531.71 | 28.8 | 18.47 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $449.33 | 24.3 | 18.47 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $109.51 | 16.5 | 6.62 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $390.68 | 2.1 | 186.21 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $198.22 | 13.6 | 14.57 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $401.91 | 16.5 | 24.29 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $393.12 | 3.4 | 116.50 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $699.15 | 28.8 | 24.29 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $590.82 | 24.3 | 24.29 | Analyst | high |