Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$262.69-1.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AJG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $263 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $217 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $240–$300. Note: our $217 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($240–$300). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $287.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $482.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $539.80 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $46.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$240.00 – $300.00 (median $287.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-08-19
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $158.11 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $124.01 | 1.3 | 92.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $98.55 | 11.1 | 8.91 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $160.42 | 11.2 | 14.39 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $176.61 | 2.9 | 61.37 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $341.67 | 28.4 | 12.01 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $109.01 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $264.30 | 22.0 | 12.01 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $156.84 | 12.4 | 12.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $188.61 | 1.3 | 140.69 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $149.88 | 11.1 | 13.55 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $200.72 | 11.2 | 18.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $245.32 | 2.9 | 85.25 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $512.07 | 28.4 | 18.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $396.11 | 22.0 | 18.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $249.44 | 1.3 | 186.07 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $198.22 | 11.1 | 17.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $248.58 | 11.2 | 22.29 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $303.81 | 2.9 | 105.58 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $634.18 | 28.4 | 22.29 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $490.57 | 22.0 | 22.29 | Analyst | high |