Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$288.11-0.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.89 → 14.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AJG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of acquisitions adding $3.5B revenue | A primary condition in Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration of acquisitions contributing $3.5B annual revenue. | Intact | Integration delays or revenue contribution falls significantly below $3.5B by 2025-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AJG is a durable-growth business with a two-pronged strategy: organic growth, meaning growth from existing operations, and acquisitions. The multi-year view is on watch after a recent earnings miss and a sharp drop in company momentum, despite management’s recurring growth priorities remaining active.
AJG is valued at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable growth. The valuation is stretched, so those expectations leave limited room for execution to disappoint; the evidence does not indicate high fragility from the current market regime.
In 2026-Q3, combined Brokerage and Risk Management revenue grew 18%, including 5% organic growth, while adjusted EBITDAC, a measure of operating earnings, grew 25% and its margin widened to 35.3%. Five acquisitions closed, but current-quarter evidence on integrating acquired businesses is limited; recent performance remains weak relative to peers, and a guidance cut on the next call is a key near-term risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on AJG sustaining organic growth, improving margins, and integrating acquisitions while continuing to execute its growth strategy. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts could weigh on the business setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
AJG has evidence of revenue growth, margin expansion, and active acquisitions, but the latest miss, weak relative performance, and stretched valuation keep the 1-3 year thesis in a watch state. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain adjusted EBITDAC margin near 31% |
| Profit margins remain strong near 31%. |
| Broken |
| Adjusted EBITDAC margin falls below 28% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 15% annually | A primary condition in Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14.6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% next year | Revenue growth: 18.14% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=14.6% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 5, 202618.136439 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““For our combined brokerage and risk management segments, our two-pronged revenue growth strategy – growing both organically and through acquisitions – delivered revenue growth of 28% in the quarter.” ““Our two-pronged revenue growth strategy, that’s organic and M&A, drove double-digit top line growth for the 20th straight quarter.” Revenue was $3.976 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.87 → $14.84 · observed estimates
$18.31B → $17.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.87 | $18,310,932,460 | 22 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.87 | $18,310,932,460 | 22 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.87 | $18,310,932,460 | 22 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.90 | $18,243,909,126 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.87 | $18,310,932,460 | 22 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.87 | $18,234,658,510 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.87 | $18,234,658,510 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.87 | $18,234,658,510 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.93 | $18,266,523,213 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.91 | $18,236,329,138 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.87 | $18,291,778,020 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $14.89 | $18,268,552,700 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.89 | $18,268,552,700 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.89 | $18,268,552,700 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.91 | $18,236,329,138 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.91 | $18,236,329,138 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.91 | $18,236,329,138 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.91 | $18,236,329,138 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.91 | $18,236,329,138 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.91 | $18,236,329,138 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.92 | $18,154,281,997 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.92 | $18,154,281,997 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.92 | $18,154,281,997 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.92 | $18,154,281,997 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.92 | $18,154,281,997 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.92 | $18,154,281,997 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.92 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.92 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.92 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.93 | $18,148,575,747 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.88 | $18,097,253,308 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.88 | $18,095,415,412 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.88 | $18,095,415,412 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.88 | $18,095,415,412 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.88 | $18,095,415,412 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.88 | $18,095,415,412 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.88 | $18,094,477,912 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.89 | $18,096,754,744 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.89 | $18,096,754,744 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.89 | $18,096,754,744 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.89 | $18,096,754,744 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.89 | $18,096,754,744 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.89 | $18,086,871,181 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.84 | $17,972,351,524 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.84 | $17,965,880,935 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.84 | $17,965,880,935 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.84 | $17,965,880,935 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.84 | $17,965,880,935 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.84 | $17,966,366,876 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.84 | $17,966,366,876 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.84 | $17,966,365,200 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.85 | $17,966,355,487 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.82 | $17,890,585,576 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.82 | $17,881,695,558 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.82 | $17,881,695,558 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.82 | $17,877,264,279 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.84 | $17,865,222,004 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $14.84 | $17,865,222,004 | 14 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 11 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.