Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$262.69-1.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AJG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
AJG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 30, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the Company) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the Earnings Release). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The number of acquisitions shows how well the company is growing. More acquisitions can boost revenue and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says they closed more than 5 acquisitions in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 5 acquisitions closed in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in premiums affect revenue and profits. A shift may show market conditions impacting earnings.
Watch forRenewal premiums show an increase across major lines by Q3 2026.
Also watch forRenewal premiums show a decline across major lines by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A margin drop below 30% shows cost issues and affects profits. This is important for keeping investor trust.
Worry ifEBITDAC margin is above 30%.
Less concerning ifEBITDAC margin falls below 30%.
Why it matters: Organic growth below 5% means demand may be weak. This could hurt future growth.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic revenue growth reported at or above 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $280 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,780 loss on $10,000 · 37.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 20% shows the company may be slowing down.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 20%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 20%.