Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$288.11-0.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AJG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AJG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 29, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the Company) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 (the Earnings Release). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Five deals added $102 million in estimated annual revenue in Q3. A similar pace would support the acquisition part of the growth plan.
Supportive ifQ4 closes include deals with at least $100 million in estimated annual revenue.
Worry ifQ4 closes include deals with less than $50 million in estimated annual revenue.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its growth trend is easing. A drop below its recent median would add pressure to the sector backdrop.
Worry ifThe next sector update shows revenue growth below its recent median.
Less concerning ifThe next sector update shows revenue growth at or above its recent median.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDAC grew 25% in Q3. Growth below 10% would break the double-digit run management has highlighted.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDAC growth is below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDAC growth is 10% or more year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $280 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,728 loss on $10,000 · 27.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.