Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.43-38.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AKBA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage Auryxia revenue decline due to competition | The company manages Auryxia's revenue decline due to competition. | Broken | Auryxia revenue declines faster than expected or accelerates loss | Auryxia unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Auryxia revenue: $36.19M in FY2026-Q1. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. May 7, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk commercial-growth and pipeline story, not an established profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with Vafseo gaining use, but confidence is medium and the business remains loss-making.
The evidence labels AKBA cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative; model confidence is low. That suggests expectations are not especially demanding, but the evidence does not show that weak results or the recent listing issue are fully reflected.
Near term, Vafseo’s reported revenue rose from $15.8 million in Q1 2026 to $21.3 million in Q2, with more than 10,500 patients on therapy. Auryxia revenue fell to $25.5 million in Q2 from $47.2 million a year earlier, while two pipeline trials advanced; the company remains loss-making, and the next results carry elevated miss risk. A delisting notice dated October 23 adds a material near-term concern, though the evidence does not state its outcome.
The multi-year view depends on whether Vafseo can keep expanding access and patient use while the pipeline progresses. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the broader healthcare backdrop.
Over one to three years, AKBA’s thesis has tangible commercial progress but is offset by declining Auryxia revenue, ongoing losses, and high risk. The next results and the listing issue are important near-term tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Recent M&A activity strengthens its rare kidney disease pipeline. |
| Improving |
| pipeline milestones delayed or acquisitions fail to integrate |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize and grow total revenue | A primary condition in Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is total revenue >= $58.8 million in FY25. | Broken | total revenue falls below $58 million in FY25 | Revenue: $49.128M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: total revenue >= $58.8 million in FY25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202649,128,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand Vafseo revenue through dialysis access | Akebia is growing Vafseo revenue by expanding dialysis access. | Improving | Vafseo revenue growth fails to materialize or declines over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.19 → $-0.30 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.19 | $159,899,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.20 | $159,369,200 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.20 | $159,369,200 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.20 | $159,369,200 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.20 | $148,189,200 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.20 | $148,189,200 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.20 | $148,189,200 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.24 | $159,149,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.30 | $140,042,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.30 | $132,507,667 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.