Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.43-38.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AKBA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -67.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -35.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
AKBA — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-10-23
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On October 21, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) received a deficiency letter (the "Notice") from the Listing Qualifications Department (the “Staff”) of the Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that, for the last 30 consecutive business days, the bid price for the Company’s common stock, par value $0.00001 per share (the “Common Stock”), had closed below $1.00 per…
Why it matters: The interim trial result showed fewer hospital stays, but no clear change in deaths. Full data can test that result.
Watch forA meeting presentation reports fewer hospital stays with Vafseo and win odds above 1.0. This matches the interim result.
Also watch forA presentation shows no fewer hospital stays, or a win odds at or below 1.0.
Why it matters: Akebia reported a $8.9 million Q2 loss and $155.5 million in cash. Updates can show whether the two-year funding plan still holds.
Watch forThe November 9 results show cash and expected cash sources cover the current plan for at least two years. The net loss is below $8.9 million.
Also watch forThe company reports less than two years of funding for its plan, or a net loss above $8.9 million.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose 34% from Q1. Another increase would show that patient use is still growing.
Supportive ifOn November 9, Q3 Vafseo revenue is above Q2's $21.3 million, and patient use rises from 10,500.
Worry ifQ3 Vafseo revenue is $21.3 million or less, or the patient count falls from 10,500.
Why it matters: Generic competition and pricing pressure have cut Auryxia sales. A further drop could add to the revenue strain.
Worry ifQ3 Auryxia revenue is below Q2's $25.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Auryxia revenue is at least $25.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$263 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $723 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,348 loss on $10,000 · 73.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.