Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.97-0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AKBA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -28.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AKBA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 and recent business highlights. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Report”) and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report (including
Why it matters: Profitability is a main goal for Akebia. It impacts investor trust and funding.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a way to profitability with smaller losses.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows bigger losses with no clear way to profitability.
Why it matters: Making a profit is important for Akebia's future and for investor trust.
Watch forOperating costs fall while revenue rises. This leads to positive EBITDA.
Also watch forOperating costs rise without revenue growth. This results in negative EBITDA.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well Vafseo works compared to ESAs. This is key for future growth.
Watch forTopline data from VOCAL trial shows positive results for Vafseo.
Also watch forTopline data from VOCAL trial shows negative results for Vafseo.
Why it matters: More patients are enrolling. This shows the pipeline's potential and how well management is working.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the praliciguat Phase 2 trial reaches or exceeds 60 patients.
Worry ifIf enrollment is below 60 patients, it may mean there are problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$267 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $642 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,338 loss on $10,000 · 73.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Initial data from this trial may support Akebia's plans. Good results could help grow treatments for rare kidney diseases.
Supportive ifEarly data from the Phase 2 ebribafusp trial shows it is safe and works well.
Worry ifEarly data shows safety problems or it does not work well. This weakens the pipeline.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Vafseo revenue is key to Akebia's overall growth strategy. It shows market acceptance and demand.
Supportive ifVafseo's revenue grows more than 10% each quarter from dialysis access.
Worry ifVafseo revenue growth falls below 0% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth would show strong demand and market acceptance for Vafseo.
Supportive ifQ3 Vafseo revenue exceeds $27.6 million, indicating over 30% growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 Vafseo revenue growth falls below 30% compared to Q2.
Why it matters: A big drop would show strong competition and hurt total revenue.
Worry ifAuryxia revenue falls below $22.5 million in Q3, showing over 50% drop from Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifAuryxia revenue stays above $22.5 million in Q3, showing less than 50% drop.
Why it matters: Showing VOICE trial results could boost Vafseo's trust and market standing.
Supportive ifAkebia shares VOICE trial results at a big scientific meeting.
Worry ifNo submission of VOICE trial results occurs within the next six months.
Why it matters: Early data may show that ebribafusp can help treat rare kidney diseases.
Watch forEarly data from the Phase 2 trial shows good results in IgA nephropathy and lupus nephritis.
Also watch forEarly data shows no big changes in the trial results.