Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Albemarle Corporation (ALB)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$98.37+3.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.80 → 8.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $0.9B to $1.0B in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA rose from $267M to $664M in the same period. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $900 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical, higher-risk business with a sector tailwind, not yet a proven earnings compounder. The thesis has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but its overall state remains watch.
ALB screens cheap versus peers, while the evidence labels its valuation as justified and fragility as low. The expectations gap is negative, so current expectations appear cautious rather than demanding, though the snapshot gives limited detail on what the market assumes.
Near term, management is on track with 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and first-half capital spending is below the prior year. Earnings remain loss-making, recent performance is below the industry cohort, and erratic earnings surprises plus recent peer misses keep execution risk elevated.
The multi-year view depends on ALB continuing to deliver its 2026 guidance and making progress on earnings while maintaining capital discipline. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from Materials bellwethers such as LIN, ECL, and SHW would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ALB has improving operating progress and a supportive sector backdrop, but loss-making earnings and below-cohort performance leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Albemarle Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $550 million and <= $600 million. |
| Broken |
| Capital expenditures exceed $600 million or fall below $550 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $71.731M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $550 million and <= $600 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202671,731,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue between $4.1B and $4.3B in 2026 | A primary condition in Albemarle Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.1 billion and <= $4.3 billion. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $4.1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.553B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.1 billion and <= $4.3 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261,553,097,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.51 → $8.99 · observed estimates
$6.54B → $6.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.51 | $6,541,114,830 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.89 | $6,534,382,767 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.52 | $6,541,114,830 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.68 | $6,523,770,222 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.52 | $6,541,114,830 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.64 | $6,539,770,222 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.47 | $6,556,225,940 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.74 | $6,487,227,420 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.74 | $6,487,227,420 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.74 | $6,487,227,420 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-11 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.52 | $6,380,992,220 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.66 | $6,549,711,398 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.26 | $6,330,751,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.26 | $6,330,751,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.26 | $6,330,751,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.26 | $6,330,751,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.26 | $6,330,751,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.26 | $6,330,751,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.06 | $6,295,340,234 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.76 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.76 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.81 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.80 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.80 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.80 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.80 | $6,179,173,998 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.50 | $6,104,823,091 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.49 | $6,105,073,091 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.61 | $6,105,073,091 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.61 | $6,106,100,336 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.61 | $6,106,100,336 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.03 | $6,166,189,870 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.03 | $6,166,189,870 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.95 | $6,152,334,471 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.92 | $6,152,334,471 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.22 | $6,217,801,138 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.22 | $6,214,667,804 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.22 | $6,214,667,804 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.22 | $6,214,667,804 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.22 | $6,214,667,804 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.22 | $6,214,667,804 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.14 | $6,181,360,441 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.74 | $6,083,367,147 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.64 | $6,074,268,280 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.64 | $6,074,268,280 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.64 | $6,074,268,280 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.64 | $6,074,268,280 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.99 | $5,997,558,110 | 10 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.