Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$5.75 → $5.75 · observed estimates
Alico, Inc. (ALCO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$37.21-2.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.75 → 5.75 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.05 per share | It also maintains a steady dividend of $0.05 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.05 per share in any quarter after 2026-Q2 | Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share through 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20260.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$5.75 → $5.75 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 23, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ALCO is a small, loss-making transformation story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: land monetization is showing progress, but recent financial performance remains weak and the overall signal has turned mixed.
The valuation model indicates ALCO trades at a premium to peers, while its low-confidence expectations gap suggests the market may not fully account for the company’s optionality, or potential value from future opportunities. The evidence labels the priced-in fragility as low, but does not establish that the premium is justified by current results.
In the near term, execution has been uneven: revenue and net income improved from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026 as management shifted toward land monetization. Net debt fell from September 2025 to June 2026, but debt reduction is behind management’s stated priority, and recent performance remains well below the industry cohort. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage credibility; the stated near-term risk of a miss is low, though the company’s small size and recent peer misses are reasons for attention.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued progress in land monetization and better control of net debt. A guidance cut, or further weakening in jobs data that heightens recession concerns, would pressure the business outlook; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
ALCO’s multi-year view has a promising operational shift, but fragile earnings quality, weak recent performance, and debt execution leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend On July 16, 2026, the Company paid a third quarter cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock to stockholders of record as of July 2, 2026.” “Dividend On April 17, 2026, the Company paid a second quarter cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock to stockholders of record as of April 3, 2026.”
Manage and reduce net debt | The company manages and reduces net debt, aiming to lower it from $60 million to about $35 million. | Intact | Net debt rises above $45 million after 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Total debt was $85.4 million and net debt was $29.8 million at June 30, 2026, compared to $85.5 million and $47.4 million, respectively, at September 30, 2025.” “• Total debt was $85.5 million and net debt was $32.6 million at March 31, 2026, compared to $85.5 million and $47.4 million, respectively, at September 30, 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Improve operating income and reduce losses | Alico is improving its operating income, cutting losses from -$153 million to -$7.8 million in one year. | Intact | Operating income loss worsens beyond -$7.8 million in any quarter after 2026-Q2 | Operating income: $1.886M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income loss less than -$7.8 million by 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20261,886,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.75 | $5,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.