Alico, Inc. (ALCO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.43+1.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -64.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALCO — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-24
of this Report (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: If revenue exceeds $9 million, it shows good progress in changing to land monetization.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was above $9 million. This shows strong execution of the transformation plan.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $9 million. This suggests issues in the transformation process.
Why it matters: New lease agreements would help Alico grow and diversify its revenue.
Supportive ifThere is news of more agricultural lease agreements beyond the deal with U.S. Sugar.
Worry ifNo new agricultural lease agreements were announced. This shows a stop in growth plans.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is doing well. It also cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.05 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend is cut below $0.05 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: M&A activity can boost growth and operations. It may change the company's future.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of further M&A deals or partnerships after June 2026.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements or delays in existing agreements.
Why it matters: More lease agreements would show success in the land monetization plan.
Supportive ifNew farm lease agreements were announced. This adds to the recent 3,280-acre lease.
Worry ifNo new agricultural lease agreements were announced. This suggests a slowdown in the plan.
Why it matters: New lease agreements can drive growth and revenue. Delays or cancellations could hurt expansion plans.
Supportive ifThe company shares news of new agricultural lease deals beyond the current one.
Worry ifNo new lease deals are shared, or the current deal ends.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show ongoing problems in changing from citrus operations.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $5 million. This shows challenges in the business transition.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is over $5 million. This suggests better performance in land development.
Why it matters: This agreement could bring in more money and help with the change.
Supportive ifThe farm lease with U.S. Sugar Corporation is now in place.
Worry ifNot completing the lease agreement or delays in starting it are negative signs.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well Alico is doing financially and in the market.
Watch forEarnings report shows a profit or less loss.
Also watch forEarnings report shows more losses or worse financial numbers.
Why it matters: Earnings results can show trends in profit and debt management.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings fall short of expectations, pointing to ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is handling costs well. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income is more than -$7.8 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income remains at or worsens from -$7.8 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Managing net debt is key for financial stability. An increase could signal issues in cash flow or capital management.
Worry ifNet debt reported above $37 million in fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifNet debt remains below or equal to $37 million as projected.
Why it matters: Getting state and federal permits is important. It helps with land development and making money.
Supportive ifState and federal permits granted for Corkscrew Grove East Village by the end of 2026.
Worry ifPermitting process delays or denials for Corkscrew Grove East Village.
Why it matters: Lower net debt helps financial stability. It also supports growth plans.
Supportive ifNet debt reported below $30 million in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifNet debt remains above $30 million or increases in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Regular dividends show the company is doing well. They also show care for shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.05 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend is cut or not paid in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in lease income helps move from citrus operations to making money from land.
Supportive ifLease income increases by at least 10% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifLease income decreases or remains flat in the next quarterly report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $247 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,507 loss on $10,000 · 15.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.