Alico, Inc. (ALCO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$37.21-2.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -64.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
ALCO — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-24
of this Report (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Alico needs these permits before the planned village can move toward construction. Management says construction could begin in 2028 or 2029 if all approvals are granted.
Supportive ifAlico says it has approval for the state and federal permits needed for East Village.
Worry ifA regulator denies a key permit. Or Alico says a needed permit is delayed past its stated plan.
Why it matters: A completed sale would turn the lease's purchase option into cash. If it is not used, the land may keep earning lease income instead.
Watch forAlico says the lessee used the option and the sale closed for about $29.5 million.
Also watch forThe option expires or is declined. Alico reports no sale of the 3,280 acres.
Why it matters: A lower debt load can help fund Alico's land plans. The forecast is above June net debt of $29.8 million.
Watch forFiscal 2026 net debt is about $37 million or lower, with no new asset sale needed to meet the figure.
Also watch forFiscal 2026 net debt is above $37 million. Or management says more asset sales are needed to support cash needs.
Why it matters: A steady payment would keep the stated dividend pattern intact. A cut would show a change in how Alico uses cash.
Watch forAlico declares and pays a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share.
Also watch forAlico cuts, pauses, or skips its quarterly dividend.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$62 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $240 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,678 loss on $10,000 · 16.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next report can show whether cash flow supports the stated runway through fiscal 2029. A lower cash balance or weaker EBITDA would challenge that claim.
Watch forAt the Nov. 23 report, cash remains near $48 million and management keeps the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast near $15 million.
Also watch forAt the Nov. 23 report, cash is below $48 million and management cuts the adjusted EBITDA forecast below $15 million.