Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.61+2.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALGM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
ALGM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 26, 2026. The full text of the press release issued is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to Allegro's strategy. A drop would raise concerns about demand.
Worry ifQ2 2027 sales growth below 23% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2027 sales growth at or above 23% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows how well a company runs. A drop means problems.
Worry ifOperating margin below 2% in Q2 2027.
Less concerning ifOperating margin at or above 2% in Q2 2027.
Why it matters: Growth in the AI data center market is key for Allegro's future. Progress here shows future money-making potential.
Supportive ifManagement gives clear numbers on growth in AI data center sales or design wins.
Worry ifThere are no updates or negative comments about AI data center market growth.
Why it matters: Design wins indicate future revenue potential. A lack of wins could hurt growth.
Supportive ifThey announced big design wins in AI data centers and automotive sectors.
Worry ifNo big design wins were announced in AI or automotive sectors.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$316 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $638 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,905 loss on $10,000 · 49.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More design wins mean more money in the future. It shows the company can compete.
Supportive ifDesign wins have increased a lot this year compared to last year.
Worry ifYear-to-date design wins reported to stagnate or decline.
Why it matters: Growing bookings and backlog show future revenue potential. It shows market confidence in Allegro's products.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big increase in bookings and backlog from previous quarters.
Worry ifBookings and backlog show no big increase. This suggests future revenue challenges.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Allegro can keep its growth momentum. A strong range signals continued demand.
Supportive ifQ2 total net sales reported in the range of $265 million to $275 million.
Worry ifQ2 sales guidance falls below $265 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Allegro can keep or boost profits. Strong margins help investor trust.
Supportive ifGross margin reported within the guidance range of 50.75% to 51.75%.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 50.75%.
Why it matters: Strong automotive sales growth shows demand in a key segment. It reflects Allegro's market position.
Supportive ifAutomotive sales grew over 15% compared to last year.
Worry ifAutomotive sales grew less than 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Data center sales growth shows success in a key market. It shows if Allegro is using trends.
Supportive ifData center sales made up over 17% of total sales.
Worry ifData center sales drop below 17% of total sales.