Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$26.80-14.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALGM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALGM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 25, 2026. The full text of the press release issued is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Why it matters: Management set Q3 sales at $278 million to $288 million. Results below that range would break its near-term growth path.
Worry ifQ3 FY2027 sales come in below $278 million, the low end of the stated range.
Less concerning ifQ3 FY2027 sales reach at least $278 million and stay within or above the stated range.
Why it matters: The company paid down $25 million of debt after the quarter. More cash flow would support further debt cuts; weaker cash flow could limit them.
Watch forIn a later quarter, operating cash flow is above $36.8 million. The company also makes another debt payment by choice.
Also watch forA later quarter reports operating cash flow below $36.8 million. The company makes no debt payment by choice.
Why it matters: Bookings rose for eight straight quarters, and design wins reached a record. A reversal could weaken the case for continued sales growth.
Watch forThe next results report both higher bookings and more design wins than in the same quarter a year earlier.
Also watch forThe next results report lower bookings and fewer design wins than in the same quarter a year earlier.
Why it matters: Data center led recent growth and set a new sales record. A new record would show that this growth source is still gaining ground.
Supportive ifA later earnings release reports data center sales above the prior record set in Q2 FY2027.
Worry ifA later earnings release reports data center sales below the Q2 FY2027 record.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$248 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $729 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,151 loss on $10,000 · 61.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 51.5% in Q2. Management's Q3 range starts at the same level, so the next result tests whether gains continue.
Supportive ifQ3 FY2027 non-GAAP gross margin is above 51.5%, the low end of the company range.
Worry ifQ3 FY2027 non-GAAP gross margin is below 51.5%.