Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-27 · fmp
Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$26.80-14.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.50 → 1.55 EPS · FY ending Mar 27, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALGM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS around $0.21 next quarter | A supporting condition in Allegro MicroSystems's published investment case. The stated target is ~$0.21. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.19 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $0.12 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.21. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented semiconductor business with improving recent results, but it is not yet a consistent profit story. The long-term thesis is intact, though the latest earnings miss weakened momentum and raised the risk level.
ALGM is valued at a slight premium to peers, and the valuation model indicates that expectations are broadly aligned with the fundamentals. The expectations gap is small, but model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain.
Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and expansion into automotive and data center markets support continued business progress. Near term, two recent earnings misses, including the latest quarter, and a sharp drop in momentum make execution less certain; profitability is improving, but remains a mixed priority.
The key near-term test is whether ALGM avoids a guidance cut after the latest miss. Over the next one to three years, the thesis also depends on continued sales growth, margin improvement, and demand in automotive and data center markets. Broader support could come if interest rates ease or major technology companies stabilize, but the evidence does not establish that either will happen.
The one-to-three-year view rests on real sales and operating progress, offset by repeated misses, high risk, and uncertain profitability. The thesis remains intact, but confidence in its execution is limited. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Allegro MicroSystems's published investment case. The stated target is ~50.5%. |
| Improving |
| Gross margin falls below 48% next quarter |
Gross margin: 49.18% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~50.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 202649.17655 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow AI data center sales to 14% of total sales | The company expands in automotive and AI data center markets, with data center sales reaching 14% of Q4 revenue. | Intact | Data center sales share falls below 10% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth to at least $890 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Allegro MicroSystems's published investment case. The stated target is >= $890 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $890 million in FY26 | Revenue: $276.884M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $890 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026276,884,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.48 → $1.55 · observed estimates
$1.25B → $1.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.48 | $1,250,383,978 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.48 | $1,250,383,978 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.49 | $1,253,828,808 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.49 | $1,253,828,808 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.49 | $1,253,828,808 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.49 | $1,253,828,808 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.49 | $1,253,828,808 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.53 | $1,287,064,576 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.53 | $1,287,064,576 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.50 | $1,288,880,785 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.50 | $1,287,751,986 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.50 | $1,287,851,986 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.50 | $1,287,749,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.50 | $1,287,870,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,089 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.50 | $1,287,829,087 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.53 | $1,302,474,158 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.55 | $1,310,094,192 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.55 | $1,310,094,192 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.55 | $1,310,094,192 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.55 | $1,310,094,192 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.55 | $1,310,094,192 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.55 | $1,310,094,192 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.