Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.68 → 9.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALGT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain liquidity above $1.2B and disciplined CAPEX | A supporting condition in Allegiant Travel Company's published investment case. The stated target is Liquidity >= $1.2B; CAPEX $570-$590M. | Broken | Liquidity falls below $1.1B or CAPEX exceeds $590M | Capital expenditures: $120.713M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Liquidity >= $1.2B; CAPEX $570-$590M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026120,713,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk airline recovery and integration story, not yet a steady compounder. The thesis has turned mildly favorable, but remains on watch because recent performance has lagged its industry cohort.
The evidence describes ALGT as cheap versus peers, with a sizable negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear cautious relative to the valuation model. The model has medium confidence, and the evidence does not provide enough detail to say exactly what results the market assumes.
Near term, management has shown progress: operating income improved from a loss to a profit year over year, margins rose despite higher fuel costs, and the combined company reported record revenue and earnings in 2026-Q2. Sun Country integration and liquidity management are on track, though the CEO transition, recent financial underperformance, and an airline-sector headwind add risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued integration progress and delivery of the stated synergy goal, alongside further margin improvement. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
The 1-3 year view has real execution progress, but remains uncertain given high risk, sector pressure, and recent relative weakness. The key evidence to track is whether integration and margin gains continue without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Boeing 737-8200 fleet grows to 25 aircraft | A supporting condition in Allegiant Travel Company's published investment case. The stated target is 25 aircraft. | Intact | Fleet size fails to reach 20 Boeing 737-8200 aircraft by end 2026 | Fleet expansion advancing (6 new 737-8 options exercised) vs 25 aircraft target Allegiant exercised six 737-8 options in Oct 2026, supporting fleet growth objectives. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, 72 percent of our ASMs are scheduled on high-demand peak days, and fuel-efficient MAX aircraft are expected to account for 20 percent of our combined capacity.” “Given fuel volatility, we will continue to trim off-peak flying while preserving the peak-period schedule.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating margin near 14.9% | A primary condition in Allegiant Travel Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=14.9%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 13.5% next year | Operating margin: 2.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14.9%. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20262.237862 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Allegiant delivered another quarter of operating profitability, expanding our adjusted operating margin by 340 basis points year over year on a pro forma basis in our seasonally slowest quarter, despite a more than 55 percent surge in fuel costs per gallon," stated Greg Anderson, chief executive officer of Allegiant Travel Company.” “"Despite a 6.8 percent capacity reduction, standalone Allegiant increased unit revenue 24.6 percent year over year and expanded adjusted operating margin 0.4 percentage points to 9.0 percent, keeping us on track to rank among the industry leaders in full-year operating margin.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to about $2.99 billion | Revenue is expected to grow to about $2.99 billion by 2027. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below ~$2.66B in FY26 | Revenue: $943.49M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.99B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026943,490,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are pleased with the pace of integration and are confident that we will achieve a minimum of $140 million in annual run-rate synergies within three years of close.” “Together, we are building the nation’s leading leisure carrier, and we look forward to sharing our integration milestones and long-term financial framework at our Investor Day on December 7."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.12 → $9.90 · observed estimates
$4.33B → $4.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.12 | $4,334,016,780 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.31 | $4,359,161,144 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.46 | $4,360,488,610 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.46 | $4,360,488,610 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.46 | $4,360,488,610 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $12.38 | $4,360,488,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.38 | $4,360,488,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.38 | $4,360,488,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.31 | $4,359,161,144 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.31 | $4,359,161,144 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.31 | $4,359,161,144 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.31 | $4,359,161,144 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.31 | $4,359,161,144 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.31 | $4,359,161,144 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.85 | $4,380,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.85 | $4,380,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.85 | $4,380,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.85 | $4,380,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.85 | $4,380,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.78 | $4,387,639,825 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.73 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.35 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.35 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.35 | $4,389,185,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.20 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.20 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.00 | $4,415,152,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.78 | $4,439,854,412 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.78 | $4,439,852,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.78 | $4,439,852,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.77 | $4,439,852,425 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.77 | $4,458,579,697 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.77 | $4,458,579,697 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.77 | $4,458,579,697 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.68 | $4,481,699,152 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.68 | $4,481,699,152 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.68 | $4,481,699,152 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.68 | $4,481,699,152 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.55 | $4,499,613,555 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.16 | $4,501,303,902 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.94 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.94 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.85 | $4,539,739,531 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.90 | $4,540,491,570 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.90 | $4,540,491,570 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.90 | $4,540,494,077 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.90 | $4,540,494,077 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.