Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$87.59+7.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALGT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 47.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALGT — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-27
Director — Jude Bricker: A director resigned due to a conflict of interest from starting a new business, which is a standard governance action rather than a sudden executive loss.
Why it matters: The deal plan depends on savings from joining the airlines. Reaching this mark would support management's integration plan.
Supportive ifCompany reports at least $140 million in annual run-rate savings within three years of the May 2026 close.
Worry ifCompany cuts its $140 million savings goal or reports that it will miss the three-year window.
Why it matters: Allegiant exercised six Boeing options for 2028 delivery. The delivery plan will show whether fleet growth stays on track.
Watch forA company filing or update confirms all six 737-8 aircraft are still set for delivery in 2028.
Also watch forA company filing or update delays, cancels, or cuts the six-aircraft order.
Why it matters: Allegiant used new debt to repay most of its 2027 notes. Final repayment terms will show how much debt remains due soon.
Watch forA filing confirms the tender is complete and the remaining 2027 notes were repaid or redeemed.
Also watch forA filing shows the tender or repayment did not close, leaving the remaining 2027 notes outstanding.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $554 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,435 loss on $10,000 · 44.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.