Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$78.16+3.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALGT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 37.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 84.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALGT — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-30
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On July 24, 2026, the Company, through a wholly owned subsidiary, entered into a credit facility under which it will be able to borrow up to $177.5 million to be secured by certain Airbus aircraft in the Company’s fleet. Any notes under the facility will bear interest at a fixed rate, based on SOFR plus a margin, to be determined at drawdown and will provide for quarterly amortiz…
Why it matters: If these synergies happen, it will show the Sun Country deal was good. It will also help make more money.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that synergies are on track to meet or exceed $140 million.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or cuts in expected synergies from the buy.
Why it matters: Stable fuel costs would help Allegiant have better margins and make more money.
Supportive ifFuel costs reported below $4.35 per gallon for Q3.
Worry ifFuel costs reported above $4.75 per gallon for Q3.
Why it matters: If growth matches last quarter, it shows strong demand and pricing power after the buy.
Supportive ifQ3 unit revenue growth reported at or above 24.6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 unit revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates will show Allegiant's plans to modernize its fleet and add more capacity.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in the number of Boeing 737-8200 aircraft from 17 to 25 by year-end.
Worry ifNo updates or delays about fleet expansion plans are shared.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$281 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $552 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,923 loss on $10,000 · 39.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins would show good cost management even with rising fuel prices.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating margin was over 9.0% in Q3.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin was below 8.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: If Allegiant integrates well, it can reach more customers and work better. This helps growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save $140 million each year from the Sun Country deal.
Worry ifIntegration problems can cause delays or higher costs than expected.
Why it matters: Integrating the MAX aircraft can help operations run better and cut costs.
Supportive ifManagement says over 50% of available seat miles will come from MAX aircraft by 2026.
Worry ifDelays or problems stop the MAX from reaching its usage goals.
Why it matters: If it goes above this level, it will show better efficiency. This means higher profits.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $100 million for Q3.
Worry ifOperating income was under $80 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing this would make the balance sheet stronger and lower interest costs.
Supportive ifCompany says it successfully bought at least $377 million of the 7.250% notes.
Worry ifCompany fails to complete the tender offer by the deadline.
Why it matters: Revenue growth will show if demand stays strong even with capacity cuts.
Supportive ifTotal operating revenue grows year over year by more than 4.8% in Q2.
Worry ifTotal operating revenue growth is less than 4.8% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Issuing new notes will help pay off old debt. This impacts Allegiant's money flow and management.
Supportive ifA press release says the company issued $650 million in senior secured notes. This has increased liquidity.
Worry ifA report shows that liquidity has not improved or has gotten worse after issuing the notes.
Why it matters: The merger with Sun Country could change Allegiant's income and profits. Investors want to see how it goes.
Watch forThe Q2 earnings report on August 3, 2026 shows a big rise in revenue or income compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forThe Q2 earnings report on August 3, 2026 shows a drop in revenue or income compared to Q1 2026.