Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.54-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
ALHC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-03-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 2, 2026, Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (the “Underwriter”) and the selling stockholder listed on Schedule II thereto (the “Selling Stockholder”) with respect to an underwritten offering by the Selling Stockholder of 13,167,733 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”),…
Why it matters: A lower medical benefits ratio shows better cost control. This can help the company make more money.
Supportive ifMedical benefits ratio drops to below 86.3% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe medical benefits ratio gets worse when it goes above 86.3% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up to over 12% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows the company can grow its Medicare Advantage membership as planned.
Supportive ifMembership reaches 298,000 members or higher by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifMembership stays below 298,000 members by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Alignment's performance.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth moves above 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth remains below 9% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$234 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $513 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,796 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could affect investor confidence in Alignment Healthcare.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below its historical median rate.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays above its historical median rate.
Why it matters: This report shows how Alignment Healthcare is doing financially. Investors will study the results closely.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and profit growth better than expected.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals a decline in revenue or profits.
Why it matters: Changes in rules can affect Medicare Advantage funding. This impacts revenue and membership.
Worry ifNo big changes to Medicare funding rules are announced.
Less concerning ifNew rules or funding cuts are announced. This affects Medicare Advantage profits.
Why it matters: Membership growth is key for revenue. Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong demand.
Supportive ifMembership reaches at least 297,500 by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifMembership falls below 295,500 by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for financial health. Meeting this target signals continued strength.
Supportive ifRevenue reaches at least $1.320 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $1.300 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well a company runs its operations. Hitting this target means good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches at least $30 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $20 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted gross profit is important for making money. Hitting this target shows strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross profit reaches at least $158 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted gross profit falls below $148 million in Q3 2026.