Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.56-7.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 28.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALHC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Alignment Healthcare, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K and in the accompanying exhibit are “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Why it matters: Management set a $104 million floor for Q4. A lower result would deepen the profit shortfall after higher medical costs.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted gross profit is below $104 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted gross profit is at least $104 million.
Why it matters: CMS expects H3815 to receive 3.5 stars, down from 4.0. A rating change would confirm the loss of a quality mark.
Worry ifCMS confirms a 3.5-Star Rating for H3815 for rating year 2027.
Less concerning ifCMS revises H3815 to 4.0 stars or higher for rating year 2027.
Why it matters: Membership grew 31.2% year over year in Q3. Reaching the new floor would show that growth continued despite the profit cut.
Supportive ifHealth plan membership is at least 305,000 at year-end 2026.
Worry ifHealth plan membership is below 305,000 at year-end 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$226 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $618 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,150 loss on $10,000 · 71.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.