Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alight, Inc. (ALIT)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.82+0.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.78 → 4.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALIT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $80M to $90M for Q2 2026 | A supporting condition in Alight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 80 to 90 USD millions. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with a mixed recent signal, not a clear durable compounder or turnaround yet. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with medium confidence and recent performance below its industry cohort.
The evidence describes ALIT as cheap versus peers, while its peer premium is 0.07 and the expectations gap is -0.51. The valuation tag is justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not show that a large expectations cushion is already built in.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA have declined from the first to the second quarter of 2026, while both remain within the context of management’s full-year guidance. Free cash flow reached $101 million year to date against a $250 million annual target, so progress is mixed; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The recent signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and management has been volatile, though the August earnings event was positive.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management achieving its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance and reaching the free-cash-flow target. Near-term outcomes also depend on whether guidance is maintained, and whether rate cuts or stabilization among major technology peers ease sector pressure.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ALIT remains a high-risk, watch-state thesis: valuation is described as cheap versus peers, but recent results, management volatility, and execution against 2026 goals remain central concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected around $40 million for Q2 and $250 million for the full year 2026. |
| Improving |
| Free cash flow falls below $250 million in 2026 |
Free cash flow: $48M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=250 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202648,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize management with successful CFO transition | The CFO transition and share buyback plan improve financial stability. | Improving | Further CFO or key executive departures occur in 2026 | CFO stable; no departures reported No CFO departure news. CEO transition event noted but neutral. EBITDA guidance raised to $415M midpoint. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue guidance of $490M to $505M for Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Alight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 490 to 505 USD millions. | Intact | Revenue falls below $490 million in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $500M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 490 to 505 USD millions. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026500,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.50 → $4.60 · observed estimates
$2.15B → $1.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.89 | $2,148,075,352 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.50 | $2,148,073,570 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.62 | $2,054,510,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.62 | $2,054,510,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.62 | $2,054,510,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.62 | $2,054,510,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.27 | $2,040,130,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.27 | $2,040,130,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.89 | $2,040,130,812 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.82 | $1,998,621,390 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.82 | $1,998,614,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.78 | $1,979,974,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.78 | $1,979,978,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.60 | $1,981,747,800 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.