Alaska Air Group (ALK)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.00+8.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALK — director appointment
Dated 2026-06-03
Director — G. Michael Sievert: Mr. Sievert was appointed to the Board of Directors and increased the board size from 10 to 11.
Why it matters: The cost rise could eat into strong unit revenue gains. Q3 CASMex was up 4.4% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 CASMex rises more than 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 CASMex rises 6% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Management tied strong yields and demand to its Q4 revenue outlook. This tests whether sales gains can offset higher fuel costs.
Supportive ifQ4 RASM rises year over year by at least 10%, matching the low double-digit outlook.
Worry ifQ4 RASM growth falls below 10% year over year or turns negative.
Why it matters: The new routes build Alaska's international network and support its plan to grow outside the main cabin. Delays would slow that expansion.
Supportive ifSeattle flights to Athens, Paris, Osaka, and Papeete begin in spring 2027 as announced.
Worry ifOne or more of those four Seattle routes is canceled or pushed past spring 2027.
Why it matters: Fuel already drove a $1.8 billion full-year cost headwind. A higher Q4 price could deepen the loss outlook.
Worry ifQ4 economic fuel cost per gallon prints above $4.85.
Less concerning ifQ4 economic fuel cost per gallon is $4.85 or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$213 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $521 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,429 loss on $10,000 · 44.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Loyalty cash payments add revenue beyond ticket sales. Growth here would support Alaska's plan to diversify income.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash from Atmos Rewards grows at least 10% year over year from the Q3 2026 level of $721 million.
Worry ifQuarterly cash from Atmos Rewards stays flat or falls year over year.