Alaska Air Group (ALK)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.04+1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put ALK beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS improves toward positive by end of 2026: Q2 EPS -0.92 vs target 3.5; Q3 guide 0.5 vs target 3.5.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 10% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 41%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 46% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAlaska Air Group's growth depends on expanding international long-haul routes and its global network. Revenue grew 10% year over year, and the latest quarter beat expectations. It trades at 0.3× price-to-sales versus a peer median of 1.6×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than forecasted. The primary risk is a potential guidance cut, with a 30% chance of missing next-quarter estimates. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades. Our read remains provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. ALK is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering ALK (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ALK in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Passenger Airlines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put ALK next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
New routes support international expansion objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $42.04
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $42.04.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
New Europe flights support international expansion objective.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
New routes align with international expansion goals.
Advances: Execute Alaska Accelerate plan for profitable growth
Expanding cargo operations supports profitable growth strategy.
Threatens: Manage cost pressures amid fuel price volatility
War impacts fuel prices and operational costs significantly.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes
SAF project supports international growth objectives.
Former T-Mobile CEO brings valuable experience to the board.
Appointment reported by credible outlet enhances strategic direction.