Ally Financial (ALLY)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.36+3.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALLY — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-16
Other Events. On September 9, 2026, Ally Financial Inc. (“Ally”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement incorporating Ally’s Underwriting Agreement Standard Provisions (Debt Securities) (together, the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, TD Securities (USA) LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several Underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which Ally agreed to sell to the Underwriters $750,000,000 agg…
Why it matters: Ally’s auto lending ties it to household demand and credit health. Weak sales or a jump in jobless claims would add pressure to that backdrop.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows growth, and weekly jobless claims do not rise from the prior report.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows a decline, or weekly jobless claims rise in two reports in a row.
Why it matters: Core ROTCE rose to 13.1% in Q3, but remains below its 2025-Q3 level. A drop would weaken evidence of better returns.
Worry ifQ4 core ROTCE prints below 13.1%.
Less concerning ifQ4 core ROTCE reaches or exceeds 13.1%, with core pre-tax income above Q3’s $581 million.
Why it matters: Charge-offs were 189 bps in Q3, near the year-ago level. A sharp rise would test Ally’s claim of disciplined growth.
Worry ifQ4 retail auto net charge-offs rise above 189 bps.
Less concerning ifQ4 charge-offs stay at or below 189 bps, with 30-day delinquencies below Q3’s 4.96%.
Why it matters: The board set the Q4 dividend at $0.35 per share, up from $0.30 in Q2. A cut would mark a change in capital returns.
Worry ifAlly pays the announced $0.35 per-share Q4 dividend in full.
Less concerning ifAlly cuts, delays, or cancels the announced $0.35 per-share Q4 dividend.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,304 loss on $10,000 · 23.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.