Ally Financial (ALLY)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.73+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
ALLY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 21, 2026, Ally Financial Inc. issued a press release announcing preliminary operating results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is attached hereto and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.1. Charts furnished to securities analysts are attached hereto and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.2. In addition, supplemental financial data furnished to securities analysts is attached hereto and incorporated by…
Why it matters: A drop in net income would show that Ally is struggling to improve profitability. Investors may react negatively to this trend.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $319 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income reported above $319 million.
Why it matters: Improving net income is crucial for Ally's growth strategy. It shows better financial health.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $319 million, showing year-over-year growth.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is less than or equal to $319 million, indicating stagnation.
Why it matters: Slower growth in auto loans may mean problems for credit quality and market position.
Worry ifConsumer auto originations grow less than 10% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifConsumer auto originations grow more than 15% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A strong adjusted EPS shows good cost control and revenue growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 is over $1.11. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 is below $1.11, suggesting weaker earnings.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,304 loss on $10,000 · 23.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady dividend payout shows strong financial health. It also supports shareholders.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend remains at $0.30 for Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is below $0.30. This may mean financial trouble ahead.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends or share buybacks can affect investor trust and stock performance.
Watch forManagement says there will be more share buybacks or higher dividends.
Also watch forManagement cuts dividends or share buyback plans.
Why it matters: A steady dividend payout shows financial stability. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share stays at $0.30 for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share drops from $0.30. This shows possible financial stress.
Why it matters: Growth in consumer auto originations shows demand strength and credit quality. This supports earnings.
Supportive ifIn Q3, consumer auto loans are over $13.3 billion. This shows growth.
Worry ifIn Q3, consumer auto loans are below $11.5 billion. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: High net charge-offs may mean credit problems. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifIn Q3, retail auto net charge-offs rise above 1.57%. This shows credit issues.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, retail auto net charge-offs stay below 1.57%. This shows stable credit.
Why it matters: Steady retail deposit growth helps keep funding stable and supports business health.
Supportive ifIn Q3, retail deposits are over $144 billion. This shows customer growth.
Worry ifIn Q3, retail deposits are below $144 billion. This suggests fewer customers.
Why it matters: Earnings per share under $1.18 could mean a slowdown in profits.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP EPS exceeds $1.18, showing strong earnings growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 GAAP EPS falls below $1.18, indicating a decline in earnings performance.