Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alumis, Inc. (ALMS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.85-10.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALMS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance clinical pipeline with key data readouts | Alumis is advancing key clinical trials with important data expected in 2026. | Under Pressure | failure to report Phase 2b SLE data by Q3 2026 or psoriasis data in 2H 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder: ALMS is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and risk is elevated. Its current long-term thesis remains in a watch state, with a mixed signal after a recent earnings miss and a litigation filing.
The valuation model shows ALMS at a 12.81% premium to peers, with low confidence and optionality as the main reason for the gap. That suggests expectations give weight to future pipeline potential, but the evidence does not show exactly how much successful development the market assumes.
Near term, results may remain volatile: the company recently missed earnings, and the stated risk of a miss on the next print is elevated. Over the multi-year view, management remains on track to submit the envudeucitinib application in Q4 2026, while cash declined from the prior quarter and the SLE trial missed its overall primary endpoints despite a positive subgroup result.
The thesis depends on meeting the Q4 2026 application timeline, producing useful follow-up psoriasis data, and advancing the pipeline without weakening the cash runway. Near-term risks include another guidance cut and a weaker jobs trend; healthcare-sector strength from large peers could provide a favorable backdrop, but it does not resolve company-specific execution risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ALMS remains a fragile clinical-development story with meaningful pipeline potential but weak recent performance, elevated risk, and mixed trial progress. The long-term thesis hinges on execution and funding discipline. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Alumis, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is reduce EPS loss from -2.9 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains below -2.9 or worsens through FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-1.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce EPS loss from -2.9 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-1.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Initiate Phase 2 biomarker trial in Parkinson’s disease | It plans to start a new Phase 2 trial in Parkinson’s disease in early 2027. | Intact | no initiation of Phase 2 Parkinson’s trial by mid-2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In a Phase 1 healthy volunteer study, A-005 was well-tolerated, achieved maximal target inhibition in the periphery and demonstrated the ability to penetrate into the central nervous system.” “ “Envudeucitinib’s Phase 3 clinical validation in PsO, reinforced by our ONWARD3 long-term data, demonstrates the power of maximal TYK2 inhibition in IL-23/IL-17-driven diseases, and our anticipated Phase 2b LUMUS readout in SLE may substantiate its role in IFN-driven diseases -- potentially unlocking broader potential of our TYK2 franchise,” said Martin Babler, President and Chief Executive Officer of Alumis.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.73 → $-2.82 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.95 | $23,834,860 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.73 | $26,482,401 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.80 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.82 | $27,037,956 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.82 | $27,038,734 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.