Alumis, Inc. (ALMS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.10-2.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Improve earnings towards break-even: EPS -142.2 vs target -2.9.
Alumis is advancing key clinical trials with important data expected in 2026. The company showed positive earnings beats in recent quarters. It plans to start a new Phase 2 trial in Parkinson’s disease in early 2027. These steps could lead to future growth and improved financial results.
Alumis remains loss-making with negative EPS expected through 2027. Litigation risks and past earnings misses raise concerns. The company has no current revenue growth guidance and depends on clinical trial success.
The stock price is about 26% below our valuation level near $40 and matches the Street median. The market expects continued losses and uncertain growth. Our view differs by focusing on clinical progress as a potential catalyst.
Breaks if: failure to report Phase 2b SLE data by Q3 2026 or psoriasis data in 2H 2026
Breaks if: EPS remains below -2.9 or worsens through FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity in the healthcare sector. The current thesis is weakened due to recent financial struggles and increased risk factors.
The market appears to be pricing in a significant premium compared to peers, reflecting the optionality of ALMS's drug pipeline. However, the recent shift in performance suggests that expectations may be overly optimistic given the current fundamentals.
Management remains focused on key priorities, such as submitting a New Drug Application by Q4 2026. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and the company is operating at a loss, which may impact future growth.
The future of ALMS depends on several factors, including the outcomes of upcoming clinical trials and the overall health of the healthcare sector. Additionally, guidance cuts or continued weakness in the jobs report could negatively affect sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company had a sharp drop in price. ALMS fell 57% in a single session around September 1. This drop suggests the market is repricing the reason to own it. The latest earnings report missed expectations, which fits the price move. Mixed data from a Phase 2b lupus trial also undermines confidence in its pipeline.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: no initiation of Phase 2 Parkinson’s trial by mid-2027
In the next 1 to 3 years, ALMS's performance will largely depend on its ability to navigate clinical challenges and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.