Alumis, Inc. (ALMS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.10-2.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALMS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALMS — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-01
Other Events. On September 1, 2026, Alumis Inc. (the “Company” or “Alumis”) issued a press release titled “Alumis Announces Topline Results from Envudeucitinib Phase 2b Trial in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE).” The Company is also filing slides presented by the Company at a webcast regarding the LUMUS Phase 2b topline results on September 1, 2026. Copies of the press release and presentation are filed as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the…
Why it matters: Funding updates will show if the company can keep running until Q4 2027.
Supportive ifThe company says it has enough cash and funds from the offering to operate.
Worry ifThe company says it needs more funding before Q4 2027.
Why it matters: Starting this trial could show progress in Alumis' pipeline. It may also create new revenue.
Supportive ifPhase 1 trial for the new candidate begins as planned in 2H 2026.
Worry ifPhase 1 trial for the new candidate is delayed or not initiated in 2H 2026.
Why it matters: Alumis needs funding to keep its projects going. This affects its financial health and growth.
Watch forManagement says cash will last until Q4 2027 without more funding.
Also watch forManagement says more funding is needed before Q4 2027.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth picks up, it may help Alumis improve its performance.
Supportive ifHealth care revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Worry ifHealth care revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$276 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $686 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,875 loss on $10,000 · 68.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This data may show that envudeucitinib works for systemic lupus erythematosus. This could help it reach more patients.
Supportive ifThe LUMUS Phase 2b trial shows good results for envudeucitinib.
Worry ifThe LUMUS trial shows envudeucitinib does not work well.
Why it matters: Positive data could show that envudeucitinib works well for another use. This would increase its market potential.
Supportive ifPhase 2b topline data shows envudeucitinib works well for SLE.
Worry ifPhase 2b topline data shows envudeucitinib did not perform well for SLE.
Why it matters: Submitting the NDA is crucial for Alumis to advance its drug pipeline. It shows commitment to growth.
Supportive ifThe company submits the New Drug Application to the FDA in H2 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe company delays the NDA submission beyond H2 2026.
Why it matters: Funding operations is crucial for Alumis. Monitoring cash burn will show if they can sustain operations.
Worry ifCash burn remains below $5 million per quarter through Q4 2027.
Less concerning ifCash burn is over $5 million each quarter. This shows financial strain.
Why it matters: Submitting the New Drug Application is key for Alumis to advance its drug pipeline. It could attract investor interest and funding.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the submission of the New Drug Application to the FDA.
Worry ifNo submission announcement by the end of H2 2026.
Why it matters: The outcome of the litigation could affect Alumis's financial health and reputation. It is a risk factor for investors.
Worry ifA resolution or settlement in the lawsuit that helps Alumis.
Less concerning ifBad news in the lawsuit that hurts Alumis's position.
Why it matters: Submitting the NDA is a key step to bring envudeucitinib to market for psoriasis. Approval could boost revenue.
Supportive ifThe NDA submission to the FDA for envudeucitinib was announced in Q4 2026.
Worry ifFailure to submit the NDA as planned or delays in the submission process.
Why it matters: Funding operations until Q4 2027 is key for stability. It shows management can handle cash.
Supportive ifManagement says current cash and the January 2026 offering will pay for operations. This will last until Q4 2027.
Worry ifManagement warns of a need for more funding or cash flow problems before Q4 2027.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Alumis can improve its loss-making status. This is key for investor confidence.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses or a way to make money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bigger losses or no clear way to make money.
Why it matters: This data will show if envudeucitinib can help treat lupus in key groups.
Supportive ifTopline data from the LUMUS trial shows big improvement in the IFNGS-high subgroup.
Worry ifTopline data shows no improvement in the IFNGS-high subgroup.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is key for Alumis to expand its pipeline and validate its TYK2 franchise.
Supportive ifAlumis starts the Phase 2 biomarker trial for A-005 in Parkinson's disease as planned.
Worry ifAlumis delays or cancels the initiation of the Phase 2 trial for A-005.