Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alerus Financial Corp. (ALRS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.85-2.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.82 → 2.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALRS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations increases | Cash from operations rose from $16 million to $28 million. | Broken | cash from operations falls below $27 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $18.604M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $27.81 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 3, 202618,604,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional financial business with a multi-year thesis based on growth across diversified businesses and improving credit quality. The thesis is in a watch state: company momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains well below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence calls ALRS cheap, while its valuation is about 1.19 times the peer measure. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the model, with an expectations gap of -0.2 and no major fragility flags. The supplied evidence does not show a clear market assumption of unusually high growth.
In the near term, third-quarter 2026 net interest income rose 8.3% year over year and noninterest income rose 16.7%; problem assets and criticized loans also declined from year-end 2025. These results support management's stated priorities, though execution is mixed and recent financial performance is still weak. The near-term miss risk is described as low, but a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk, as do rate cuts for the financial sector.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustained growth across ALRS's business lines and further progress on credit quality. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers such as HDB, IBN, and USB could support sector momentum. The rate backdrop also matters because the evidence says the sector tends to do better when rates stay high.
For the 1-to-3-year view, ALRS shows signs of improving business momentum and credit quality, but weak relative financial performance and rate sensitivity keep the thesis in watch status. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Alerus Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.22 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.22 next quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.22 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.22 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 3, 20260.22 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income remains positive and grows | Net income improved from a loss of $33 million to a profit of $23 million. | Intact | net income falls below $22 million next quarter | Net income: $20.865M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $22.97 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 3, 202620,865,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.77 → $2.92 · observed estimates
$0.32B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.77 | $317,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.78 | $317,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.78 | $317,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.81 | $318,601,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.82 | $319,401,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.81 | $319,055,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.88 | $323,141,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.91 | $324,941,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.91 | $324,941,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.91 | $324,941,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.92 | $325,541,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.92 | $325,541,400 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.