Alerus Financial Corp. (ALRS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.79+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALRS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
ALRS — dividend update
Dated 2026-05-22
Other Events. On May 22, 2026, Alerus Financial Corporation (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) declared a cash dividend of $0.22 per share of its common stock. The dividend is payable on July 10, 2026, to stockholders of record on June 26, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows possible problems with interest income and profit.
Worry ifNet interest margin is under 3.80%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 3.80%.
Why it matters: An increase shows Alerus wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.22 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show less profit. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $20 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains above $20 million.
Why it matters: Updates may show management's trust in the company's value and future.
Watch forShares were repurchased under the new program.
Also watch forNo shares repurchased or program ends without action.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $228 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,075 loss on $10,000 · 10.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher payout ratio may mean less ability to keep paying dividends.
Worry ifDividend payout ratio is above 30%.
Less concerning ifDividend payout ratio remains below 30%.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong finances. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payout remains at $0.22 or increases.
Worry ifDividend payout falls below $0.22.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income helps the company earn money in different ways. It shows strong earnings.
Supportive ifNoninterest income grew more than 7% compared to Q2.
Worry ifNoninterest income grew less than 7% compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a promise to pay shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifThe company announced the dividend payout is $0.22 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or reduction from $0.22 per share.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows better financial health. It also shows efficiency.
Supportive ifCash from operations is above $27.8 million.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $20 million.
Why it matters: Net income over $23 million shows growth and good strategy execution.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income reported above $23 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $20 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact Alerus.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported above the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Why it matters: A lower ratio means better asset quality. It also shows good risk management.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets to total loans ratio is below 0.51%.
Worry ifNonperforming assets to total loans ratio is above 1.0%.