Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$131.24+2.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALSN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $131 ALSN trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 14× p/e peer median, and our $130 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $176 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $699.38 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $268.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $66.21 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $127.10 | 14.6 | 8.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $111.93 |
| 13.5 |
| 8.27 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $33.47 | 0.6 | 52.40 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $223.06 | 27.0 | 8.27 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $49.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $116.85 | 13.5 | 8.63 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $153.57 | 14.6 | 10.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $221.06 | 13.5 | 16.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $60.35 | 0.6 | 94.48 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $440.52 | 27.0 | 16.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $174.21 | 14.6 | 11.93 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $292.35 | 13.5 | 21.60 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $79.82 | 0.6 | 124.95 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $582.58 | 27.0 | 21.60 | Analyst | medium |