Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$116.45-3.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put ALSN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Automotive Parts & Equipment: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 71% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHealthy across the board
Allison Transmission's revenue growth has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 121% year over year in the third quarter. The company beat earnings estimates by 17.4% last quarter. It raised full-year guidance for the second straight quarter. ALSN trades at 13 times earnings versus a 12 times peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast suggests. A guidance cut after a recent raise would hit credibility hard. The market is in a Mania phase, which adds fragility. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades. This read is provisional. Our standing thesis remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-05. ALSN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 11 analysts currently covering ALSN (as of Nov 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare ALSN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALSN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Parts & Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put ALSN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Reaffirm full year 2026 revenue guidance
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-05. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Second consecutive guidance raise confirms strong execution.
Advances: Achieve adjusted free cash flow guidance for 2026
Q3 beat supports 2026 FCF guidance.
Advances: Reaffirm full year 2026 revenue guidance
Raised guidance directly reinforces revenue objective.
Advances: Reaffirm full year 2026 revenue guidance
Significant EPS and revenue beats validate 2026 guidance.
Advances: Prudent balance sheet management and debt reduction
Debt reduction aligns with prudent balance sheet management.
Advances: Reaffirm full year 2026 revenue guidance
Better-than-expected sales support full year revenue guidance.
Advances: Reaffirm full year 2026 revenue guidance
EAGLE V contract win supports revenue growth guidance.
Advances: Reaffirm full year 2026 revenue guidance
Securing a major contract supports revenue growth objectives.