Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$131.24+2.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALSN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), Allison Transmission, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (the “Borrower”), Fairfield Manufacturing Company, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Borrower (the “Subsidiary Guarantor”), and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent (in such capacity, the “Administrative Agent”) and as the 2026 refinancing term lender, entered into Amendment No. 6 to Credit Agreement (th…
Why it matters: Hitting free cash flow targets shows strong cash generation and good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow for 2026 is reported within the range of $655 to $805 million.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow falls below $655 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning cash to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow for Q2 meets or exceeds $655 million.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow for Q2 falls below $655 million.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance shows management's faith in the market. Good news can help investors feel better.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year 2026 net sales will be between $5,800 and $6,000 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers the full year 2026 revenue guidance to below $5,575 million.
Why it matters: High integration costs could affect profitability. They are key to achieving long-term growth.
Worry ifIntegration costs stay in line with management's plans and are under $100 million.
Less concerning ifIntegration costs go over $100 million, hurting net income and margins.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,038 loss on $10,000 · 20.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending plans is key for growth and efficiency.
Watch forManagement says the capital spending plans for 2026 will stay the same.
Also watch forManagement cuts the capital spending plans for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in consumer spending. This could help Allison Transmission.
Supportive ifConsumer spending in the discretionary sector is up from last year.
Worry ifConsumer spending in the discretionary sector is down from last year.
Why it matters: Merging successfully is important for making more money. Investors will watch for target results.
Supportive ifManagement says net sales from the Off-Highway unit rose to over $706 million in Q2.
Worry ifIf net sales from the Off-Highway unit stay the same or drop, it shows problems.
Why it matters: Net income changes show how acquisition costs impact profits.
Worry ifNet income drops below $600 million due to acquisition costs.
Less concerning ifNet income goes above $700 million, showing good cost management.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and returning cash to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifManagement raises free cash flow guidance to over $865 million for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers free cash flow guidance to under $745 million for 2026.