Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$116.45-3.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALSN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), Allison Transmission, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (the “Borrower”), Fairfield Manufacturing Company, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Borrower (the “Subsidiary Guarantor”), and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent (in such capacity, the “Administrative Agent”) and as the 2026 refinancing term lender, entered into Amendment No. 6 to Credit Agreement (th…
Why it matters: Allison raised its cash flow range after Q2. The result will test cash generation as it integrates Off-Highway.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow is at least $745M, the bottom of Allison's raised range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow is below $745M.
Why it matters: North American truck demand helped Allison Transmission reach record Q2 sales. A slowdown could weaken that growth.
Watch forAllison Transmission sales stay above Q2's $860M and rise year over year.
Also watch forAllison Transmission sales fall below $860M or decline year over year.
Why it matters: Allison had $3.715B of net debt at Q2. Lower debt would show progress toward its stated target.
Supportive ifA later report shows net debt below $3.715B and net leverage moving toward 2.0x.
Worry ifA later report shows net debt above $3.715B or net leverage moving farther from 2.0x.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $317 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,162 loss on $10,000 · 21.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.