Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$116.45-3.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.81 → 10.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALSN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures near $305 million in 2026 | The company targets free cash flow near $730 million, showing financial strength. | Broken | Capital expenditures fall below $295M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $31M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$305M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202631,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a business with a currently improving operating picture, rather than a turnaround or a clearly distressed case. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, but confidence is medium and management execution is mixed on integrating the Off-Highway unit.
Valuation is broadly aligned with expectations, and the evidence labels what is priced in as justified. ALSN trades at a modest premium to peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. The main concern in the priced-in evidence is weak execution quality, not a combination of expensive valuation and high fragility.
Near term, revenue momentum has improved: management raised 2026 consolidated sales guidance in the second quarter, after reaffirming or increasing it in each of the last three quarters. Integration of the Off-Highway business is progressing, though its status is mixed, and capital expenditure guidance has narrowed. Recent results are strong overall, but the snapshot also flags recent misses across the company and peers, so guidance delivery remains important.
The multi-year view depends partly on continued delivery against the raised revenue guidance and on capturing benefits from integrating the Off-Highway unit. A reversal into guidance cuts would damage management credibility, while earnings strength from sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV could support the broader sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ALSN’s thesis is supported by strong recent performance and improving revenue guidance, but execution and sector signals remain meaningful swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets free cash flow near $730 million, showing financial strength. |
| Recovered |
| Free cash flow falls below $655M in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable guidance and execution amid macro uncertainties | A supporting condition in Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No further guidance cuts or earnings misses in FY26. | Recovered | Additional guidance cuts or earnings misses occur in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue near $5.9 billion | A primary condition in Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.9B. | Recovered | Revenue falls below $5.57B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.534B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.9B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261,534,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.50 → $10.87 · observed estimates
$6.07B → $6.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.50 | $6,070,947,490 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.84 | $6,077,033,186 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.84 | $6,077,033,186 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.84 | $6,077,033,186 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.40 | $6,070,947,490 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.41 | $6,079,157,370 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.22 | $6,143,406,990 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.22 | $6,143,406,990 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.22 | $6,143,406,990 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $11.20 | $6,143,406,990 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.35 | $6,161,906,990 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.35 | $6,161,906,990 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.72 | $6,130,513,022 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.95 | $6,214,533,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.95 | $6,214,533,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.95 | $6,214,533,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.95 | $6,214,533,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.95 | $6,214,533,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.95 | $6,214,533,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.95 | $6,214,533,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.95 | $6,214,503,490 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.90 | $6,196,265,628 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.81 | $6,193,125,003 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.81 | $6,193,125,003 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.81 | $6,193,125,003 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.81 | $6,193,125,003 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.81 | $6,193,125,003 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.81 | $6,193,125,003 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.75 | $6,193,117,982 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.75 | $6,193,117,982 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.75 | $6,193,117,982 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.75 | $6,193,117,982 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.75 | $6,193,117,982 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.76 | $6,196,824,892 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.79 | $6,227,328,691 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.87 | $6,255,886,187 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.