Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alta Equipment Group, Inc. (ALTG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.78-16.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALTG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of at least $167.5M in 2026 | Alta aims to earn about $168M in adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $167.5M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 ALTA EQUIPMENT GROUP INC. EARNINGS PRESS RELEASE Full Year 2026 Financial Guidance and Other Financial Notes : • The Company tightened its guidance range and now expects to report Adjusted EBITDA* between $167.5 million and $177.5 million for the 2026 fiscal year.” “Additionally, supplementary presentation slides will be accessible on the “Investor Relations” section of the Company’s website at https://investors.altaequipment.com .” Revenue was $475.500 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario with a focus on improving operational metrics. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to mixed signals in recent performance and high risk factors.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that ALTG is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, the valuation is justified given the company's loss-making status and the current headwinds in the sector.
Management is focused on achieving adjusted EBITDA guidance and maintaining positive cash flow, with recent improvements noted. However, the company remains loss-making, and its recent financial performance is below that of its industry peers, indicating a need for continued scrutiny.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ALTG. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could further challenge ALTG's outlook.
Over the next 1-3 years, ALTG's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and improve its fundamentals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Positive cash flow from operations | The company is working to keep cash flow positive. | Improving | Operating cash flow turns negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $5.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20265,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During the quarter, we generated positive operating cash flow, further optimized our rental fleet, and reduced interest expense by approximately $2.8 million compared to the prior year.” “This disciplined approach to rental fleet and inventory management helped to generate $20.8 million of operating cash flows in the quarter, representing a $38.3 million improvement compared to last year.” Operating cash flow was $20.800 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth near 5% per year | A supporting condition in Alta Equipment Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4.6% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 4.6% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 ALTA EQUIPMENT GROUP INC. EARNINGS PRESS RELEASE Full Year 2026 Financial Guidance and Other Financial Notes : • The Company tightened its guidance range and now expects to report Adjusted EBITDA* between $167.5 million and $177.5 million for the 2026 fiscal year.” “Additionally, supplementary presentation slides will be accessible on the “Investor Relations” section of the Company’s website at https://investors.altaequipment.com .” Revenue was $475.500 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.52 → $-0.97 · observed estimates
$1.95B → $1.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.52 | $1,948,954,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.83 | $1,948,962,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.00 | $1,934,504,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.00 | $1,934,504,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $1,934,504,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.87 | $1,933,172,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.52 | $1,934,364,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.52 | $1,934,364,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.87 | $1,933,172,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.87 | $1,933,172,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.87 | $1,933,172,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.87 | $1,933,172,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.87 | $1,933,172,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.87 | $1,933,172,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.99 | $1,928,604,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.99 | $1,928,600,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.97 | $1,922,616,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.97 | $1,922,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.