Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.67+4.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.33 → 0.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALTO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS of at least $0.42 in 2026 | Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.42 in 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.42 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.42 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ALTO is a high-risk operational improvement story, not yet a durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent results supporting progress, though confidence has eased from high to medium.
The evidence describes ALTO as cheap versus peers, while also indicating that expectations are not especially supportive. Pricing fragility is low, and the evidence does not point to a highly fragile setup.
In the near term, revenue, gross profit, and operating income improved from the first to the second quarter of 2026, consistent with management’s focus on reliability, utilization, and project execution. The business remains loss-making overall, and erratic earnings surprises and smaller-company risk leave room for setbacks. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management continuing to improve operations and completing optimization and capital projects on time and on budget. The Materials sector tailwind may support the business if LIN, ECL, and SHW keep reporting strong results and raising guidance; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support. The evidence is medium confidence, so the durability of recent operating gains remains important.
For the 1-3 year view, ALTO shows improving operations and a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but persistent losses and execution risk make the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Alto Ingredients aims to improve plant use and reliability. |
| Improving |
| no improvement in utilization or reliability over next year |
Qualitative: Q2/Q3 earnings beats vs Q1 miss Q3 earnings beat by $0.05 with revenue topping estimates; Q2 also beat; Q1 missed. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Finally, as a result of the debottlenecking project at our Pekin dry mill, we are on track to exit the year with higher production capacity, which positions us to qualify more gallons and drive additional gross margin.”” “Added Mr. McGregor, “Looking ahead, our priorities are straightforward: improve utilization and reliability; execute our 2026 optimization and capital projects on time and on budget; and leverage the flexibility we have with multiple revenue streams to respond to market shifts and perform profitably through commodity cycles.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Use multiple revenue streams to adapt to market shifts | A primary condition in Alto Ingredients Inc's published investment case. The stated target is maintain or grow revenue streams to support stable sales. | Intact | total revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue: $245.698M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: maintain or grow revenue streams to support stable sales. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026245,698,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.61 → $0.33 · observed estimates
$0.96B → $0.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.61 | $962,553,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.34 | $951,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.34 | $951,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.34 | $951,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.33 | $951,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.33 | $977,399,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.