Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.04+0.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALTO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALTO — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 5, 2026, Alto Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an At-The-Market Issuance Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC (the “Designated Agent”), The Benchmark Company, LLC and H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC (each, an “Agent,” and collectively, the “Agents”). In accordance with the terms of the Sales Agreement, from time-to-time the Company may offer and sell shares of its common stock, $0.001 par val…
Why it matters: Negative revenue growth may mean less demand and problems.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $245 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported above $245 million.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects can improve efficiency. It can also increase revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says at least one big optimization project is done by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo news or delays on the optimization projects by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher usage rates will show if the company runs its plants better. This means they earn more.
Supportive ifUtilization rates rise above 75% for two months in a row.
Worry ifUtilization rates stay below 60% for two months in a row.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss may show ongoing problems. This can hurt investor sentiment.
Worry ifAlto reports another earnings miss in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifAlto meets or exceeds earnings expectations in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$267 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $694 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,389 loss on $10,000 · 33.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows recovery in the sector. This can boost investor confidence.
Watch forAlto reports positive revenue growth in the next quarterly earnings.
Also watch forAlto reports more negative revenue growth in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Export sales help make more money. Changes could affect future earnings.
Watch forExport sales increase by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Also watch forExport sales decrease by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Having different ways to make money can help deal with challenges and improve finances.
Supportive ifManagement says new revenue streams make up at least 15% of total revenue.
Worry ifRevenue from old streams keeps going down without new sources.
Why it matters: Positive net income means strong finances. It shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $11 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $0.
Why it matters: Higher earnings from tax credits can significantly boost net income and cash flow.
Supportive ifEarnings from Section 45Z tax credits reported above $5 million.
Worry ifEarnings from Section 45Z tax credits fall below $3 million.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for Alto.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative or goes down more.
Why it matters: Using many ways to make money can help with recent financial problems.
Supportive ifCompany reports an increase in revenue from new or existing streams.
Worry ifRevenue from multiple streams declines or remains flat.
Why it matters: Better use of resources means operations work better. This can lead to more profit. It matters to management.
Supportive ifUtilization rates rise by over 10% from the last quarter.
Worry ifUtilization rates drop or stay the same for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: More gross profit shows better operations and good cost control.
Supportive ifQ3 gross profit is over $16.6 million. This shows strong operations.
Worry ifQ3 gross profit is below $16.6 million. This suggests problems in operations.
Why it matters: More earnings from these credits would improve profit and cash flow.
Supportive ifTax credits over $5.1 million were reported in Q3.
Worry ifTax credits under $5.1 million may mean issues with getting these benefits.
Why it matters: More sales show strong demand and good market plans.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales are over $245.7 million, showing strong market results.
Worry ifNet sales fall below $245.7 million, suggesting weak demand.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects is key. It helps with efficiency and profit.
Supportive ifManagement says all 2026 projects are finished on time.
Worry ifAny delays in finishing projects or going over budget.