Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.67+4.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALTO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALTO — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 5, 2026, Alto Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an At-The-Market Issuance Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC (the “Designated Agent”), The Benchmark Company, LLC and H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC (each, an “Agent,” and collectively, the “Agents”). In accordance with the terms of the Sales Agreement, from time-to-time the Company may offer and sell shares of its common stock, $0.001 par val…
Why it matters: The credits added $5.1 million in Q2 and $3.9 million in Q1. More credits could lift earnings, but the rules and credit amounts remain uncertain.
Supportive ifQ3 results report more than $5.1 million in transferable tax credits, net.
Worry ifQ3 results report $5.1 million or less in transferable tax credits, net, or no credits.
Why it matters: The sector data points to shrinking revenue, but hints at a change. Positive growth would mark a clear shift in that backdrop.
Supportive ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth turns above 0%.
Worry ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth stays below 0%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $683 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,240 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.