Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ALLURION TECHNOLOGIES INC (ALUR)
OTCHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.020.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
OTCHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALUR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Leverage FDA approval of gastric balloon system | It has FDA approval for its gastric balloon system. | Intact | Fails to grow market share or revenue from FDA-approved product in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “The Allurion Program is a weight-loss platform that combines the FDA approved Allurion Gastric Balloon System, featuring the Allurion Smart Capsule, with the Allurion Virtual Care Suite, including the Allurion Mobile App for consumers featuring the Iris AI platform, Allurion Insights for healthcare providers, and the Allurion Connected Scale.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth story, not an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is volatile and current evidence shows mixed progress.
ALUR is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests current expectations may still be demanding relative to the evidence; the snapshot labels pricing as justified and shows low fragility.
Near term, results show limited traction: revenue fell from $3.61 million in 2025-Q4 to $2.95 million in 2026-Q1, while the operating loss narrowed over the longer period cited. Management has made a reverse stock split part of its effort to regain NYSE listing compliance, and continues to emphasize FDA approval, but recent revenue does not yet show clear commercial progress. CEO and officer changes add uncertainty.
The multi-year view hinges on whether operating losses keep narrowing and the gastric balloon system gains FDA approval and commercial traction. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure; stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as ABT, MDT, and SYK would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ALUR’s thesis rests on execution: continued cost improvement, progress toward listing compliance, and evidence that its growth catalyst can lift revenue. The setup remains high risk, with limited proof of commercial momentum so far. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating income through cost management | The company is cutting costs and improving operating income. | Intact | Operating income worsens beyond -$3.7M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-3.731M FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves to at least -$3.7M in 2026-Q1. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. May 15, 2026-3,731,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Regain NYSE listing compliance | Allurion aims to regain NYSE listing compliance soon. | Intact | Fails to regain NYSE compliance by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “– June 17, 2026 – Allurion Technologies, Inc. (OTCQB: ALUR), a pioneer in metabolically healthy weight loss, today announced a 1-for-15 reverse stock of its outstanding common stock intended to support regaining compliance with the continued listing requirements of the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) or initial listing requirements of the NYSE American.” ““We have had a constructive and collaborative dialogue with the national exchanges throughout this process, and we remain focused on meeting all requirements necessary to regain our listing,” said Dr. Shantanu Gaur, Founder & CEO of Allurion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.24 → $-18.64 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.24 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-18.64 | $23,888,100 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.