Autoliv (ALV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$125.20+0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
ALV — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-30
President, Autoliv Americas — Kevin Fox: Kevin Fox resigned from his position as President, Autoliv Americas with a transition period and support for finding a successor.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into sales performance and margin trends for the quarter.
Watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows net sales growth above 0%.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows net sales decline.
Why it matters: Closing these plants is key for cost savings and optimizing operations in EMEA.
Supportive ifThey announced closures and expect to save $40 million each year.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in the closure process or lower than expected savings.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay shareholders and keeps operations stable. Weak cash flow may show problems.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow reported at or above $1.2 billion.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was below $1.2 billion.
Why it matters: Stable organic sales growth is important for long-term success. It shows demand is recovering.
Supportive ifQ3 organic sales growth reported at or above 0%.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth is less than 0%.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports dividends and share buybacks. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifManagement raises cash flow guidance to above $1.2 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers cash flow guidance to below $1.2 billion.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay shareholders and keeps operations flexible. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 operating cash flow reported at or above $300 million.
Worry ifQ3 operating cash flow is below $300 million.
Why it matters: Closing these plants may change production costs and capacity. This could affect future profits.
Worry ifFinal pre-tax charge from Türkiye plant closures is less than $142 million.
Less concerning ifFinal pre-tax charge from Türkiye plant closures exceeds $142 million.
Why it matters: Meeting the adjusted operating margin guidance of 10.5-11% shows strong cost management. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted operating margin is at least 10.5%.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted operating margin is less than 10.5%.
Why it matters: A consistent dividend signals financial health. Changes could indicate cash flow issues.
Watch forDividend declared at or above $0.87 per share for Q2 2026.
Also watch forDividend cut below $0.87 per share for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This closure is key to optimizing operations and reducing costs. It could improve future margins and cash flow.
Supportive ifProduction will move to other facilities by mid-2028.
Worry ifDelays or increased costs in the closure process.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in Asia is important for overall success. It shows market demand and good operations.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth in Asia exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth in Asia falls below 0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,196 loss on $10,000 · 22.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.