Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Antero Midstream (AM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.17-3.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.30 → 1.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures near $205 million in 2026 | The company maintains a stable capital spending plan near $205 million for 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $220 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a volume-growth and infrastructure investment with a supportive Energy sector backdrop, rather than a proven high-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent company momentum improving, but execution is mixed across capital spending and project delivery.
The valuation evidence is mixed: AM is described as cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows a peer premium, and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not point to an unusually high expectations burden.
Near term, higher gathering and compression volumes support growth, but adjusted EBITDA rose only modestly year over year and fell short of management’s high-single-digit growth ambition. Capital spending was in line with the prior-year quarter, while East Side Express construction continued without disclosed completion or added volumes. A recent earnings beat followed two misses, and the next guidance update is an important risk.
The multi-year thesis hinges on volume growth translating into stronger EBITDA while management maintains capital discipline and advances East Side Express. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from Energy sector peers would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AM has tangible volume growth and an improving recent trend, but modest EBITDA growth and mixed execution leave important proof points ahead. The thesis remains intact, with its strength depending on better conversion of operating gains into earnings and steady sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Antero Midstream aims for high-single digit EBITDA growth through organic growth and acquisitions. |
| Intact |
| EBITDA growth falls below 7% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 9.5% next year | Revenue is expected to grow about 9.5% next year. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 7% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.48 → $1.29 · observed estimates
$1.39B → $1.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.48 | $1,387,164,400 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.61 | $1,395,234,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.61 | $1,400,895,070 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.61 | $1,400,895,070 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.61 | $1,400,895,070 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.61 | $1,434,249,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.61 | $1,434,249,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.61 | $1,432,033,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.61 | $1,432,033,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.61 | $1,432,033,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.61 | $1,432,033,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.61 | $1,432,033,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.61 | $1,432,033,730 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.30 | $1,397,583,063 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.30 | $1,458,154,145 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.30 | $1,459,463,101 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.30 | $1,448,533,371 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.30 | $1,448,533,371 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.30 | $1,448,533,371 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.31 | $1,453,328,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.29 | $1,444,637,542 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.29 | $1,443,859,102 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.29 | $1,443,859,102 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.29 | $1,443,990,502 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.29 | $1,443,990,502 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.29 | $1,456,386,320 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.