Antero Midstream (AM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.60+0.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Why it matters: Higher spending could indicate aggressive growth plans but may strain cash flow.
Watch forCapital spending is more than $47 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is $47 million or less.
Why it matters: Steady or rising volumes mean new assets are working well together.
Supportive ifFresh water delivery volumes are at or above 93 MBbl/d.
Worry ifFresh water delivery volumes are below 93 MBbl/d.
Why it matters: Spending less than this could show cash flow problems. It may affect shareholder returns.
Worry ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow after dividends was below $330 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow after dividends was between $330 million and $390 million.
Why it matters: Going over this limit may show bad capital management. It can hurt financial health.
Worry ifSpending is above $220 million.
Less concerning ifSpending is between $190 million and $220 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $193 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,267 loss on $10,000 · 12.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This guidance shows expected profits. Meeting it shows strong performance.
Supportive ifNet income reported within the guidance range of $485 million to $535 million.
Worry ifNet income reported below $485 million or above $535 million.
Why it matters: Spending more than this could show poor capital management. It may hurt free cash flow.
Worry ifTotal capital spending was above $220 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal capital spending was between $190 million and $220 million.
Why it matters: This pipeline is important for growth and connecting the region.
Supportive ifBig news for the East Side Express pipeline construction.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in the East Side Express pipeline construction.
Why it matters: More gathering volumes help the company's plans and money goals.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 gathering volumes reported to increase year over year by more than 14%.
Worry ifQ2 2026 gathering volumes reported to increase year over year by less than 14%.
Why it matters: Staying within the spending range helps Antero Midstream grow and stay financially healthy.
Watch forSpending for 2026 is expected to be between $190 million and $220 million.
Also watch forSpending goes over $220 million in 2026.
Why it matters: This shows that management aims for high-single digit EBITDA growth. It shows the company can grow despite challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA growth is less than 2% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows strong cash flow, which helps growth and returns to shareholders. It shows how well the company operates.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted Free Cash Flow after dividends exceeds $85 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted Free Cash Flow after dividends is below $80 million.
Why it matters: Sustained volume growth supports revenue and reflects demand for services. A drop could signal market weakness.
Supportive ifGathering volumes grow above 15% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifGathering volumes grow less than 10% year over year in Q3.