Antero Midstream (AM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.17-3.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Why it matters: Fresh water volumes fell 3% year over year in Q3, after falling 16% in Q2 and 21% in Q1. This tests the water business growth plan.
Watch forFresh water delivery volumes rise above 89 MBbl/d and exceed the same quarter a year earlier.
Also watch forFresh water delivery falls below 89 MBbl/d or drops again from a year ago.
Why it matters: Q3 throughput lost about 10 Bcf to curtailments. Management expects a larger hit in Q4, which could curb volume growth.
Worry ifThe company reports more than 20 Bcf of Q4 curtailments. Or gathering volumes are lower than a year ago.
Less concerning ifQ4 curtailments stay at or below 15 Bcf, while gathering volumes stay above last year's level.
Why it matters: Management said two new pads and the water system link can lift EBITDA in Q4 2026 and 2027. Adjusted EBITDA rose just 3% in Q3.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA rises from a year ago. Management confirms the two pads and water link are adding volume.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is flat or lower year over year, or the water link misses the year-end target.
Why it matters: The added capacity is due in Q4 and supports volume growth. A delay or weak use would limit that near-term gain.
Supportive ifThe company puts all 80 MMcf/d of compression capacity in service during Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe capacity is not in service by year-end. Or reported gathering and compression volumes are lower than last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,585 loss on $10,000 · 15.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The pipeline is meant to add regional links and serve future dry gas growth. The releases report construction, but no completion date or added volumes.
Supportive ifAntero reports a dated construction milestone and an in-service date. It also shares a plan to move dry gas on East Side Express.
Worry ifA later company update says the project is delayed or construction has paused. Or it gives no in-service date.