Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.22-15.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMBQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS loss narrows to about -$0.26 in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Ambiq Micro, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is -0.26 USD_PER_SHARE. | Under Pressure | EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.29 in Q2 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-0.32 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: -0.26 USD_PER_SHARE. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 11, 2026-0.32 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business whose recent results remain weak relative to its industry cohort, despite strong Q2 revenue growth. Management has delivered on its stated Q2 revenue, margin, and expense priorities, but the longer-term thesis is still being tested.
The valuation is above peers, and the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence. The pricing signal is marked justified, with low fragility, but these measures have medium confidence and do not remove the execution risk.
Near term, revenue growth and margin expansion provide evidence of operating progress, while the recent earnings record is mixed and the risk label has risen to high. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, even though the recorded miss probability is low.
The multi-year view depends on whether edge AI demand can sustain growth while margins remain strong and expenses stay controlled. Near term, guidance, rate cuts, and stabilization in major technology companies could shape the operating backdrop and sector support.
Over the next one to three years, AMBQ’s thesis rests on turning recent execution into consistent results, with high risk and a valuation above peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross margin near 45.5% in Q2 2026 |
| Gross margins are stable near 45%. |
| Under Pressure |
| Gross margin falls below 40% in Q2 2026 |
Gross margin: 45.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 45.5 PERCENT. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Aug 11, 202645.03407 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to $31M-$32M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Ambiq Micro, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 31.0 to 32.0 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | Revenue falls below $31M in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $33.901M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 31.0 to 32.0 USD_MILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 11, 202633,901,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.64 → $-0.22 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.73 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.73 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.73 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.73 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.71 | $154,545,050 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.71 | $154,545,050 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.71 | $154,545,050 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.71 | $154,545,050 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.71 | $154,545,050 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.71 | $154,545,050 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.71 | $154,545,050 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.64 | $152,666,090 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.23 | $177,416,723 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.22 | $178,433,477 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.