Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.22-15.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMBQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 319 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 68.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 115.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
AMBQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Ambiq Micro, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release to report financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall be deemed "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject…
Why it matters: Atomiq is Ambiq's first SPOT product line with a built-in NPU. A launch step would show progress on its next chip platform.
Supportive ifAmbiq names an Atomiq launch date, sampling start, or customer product using the chip.
Worry ifAmbiq says the Atomiq launch or customer sampling is delayed, or gives no launch step in its next results update.
Why it matters: Ambiq tied sales growth to edge AI demand, but said supply limits are holding it back. Sales in range would keep its growth run going.
Watch forQ3 net sales are $36M-$37M, and management reports that supply limits eased or demand stayed strong.
Also watch forQ3 net sales are below $36M. Or management says supply limits got worse and cut sales.
Why it matters: Higher margins can show that better product mix and factory gains are offsetting costs as sales grow.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 46.5%, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is below 46.5%. Or management reports a weaker sales mix or fewer factory gains.
Why it matters: Costs are rising as Ambiq funds product work and growth. A result above its range could slow progress toward lower losses.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating costs exceed $25M, above the top of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating costs are $25M or less, within or below guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$348 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $735 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,409 loss on $10,000 · 54.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.