Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$57.45+1.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMBQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 277 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 56.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMBQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Ambiq Micro, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release to report financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall be deemed "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject…
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the tech sector. This could impact Ambiq Micro's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its historical median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still higher than its average rate.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss could signal deeper issues in the business or market conditions. It would raise concerns about future growth.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows results better than what analysts expect.
Less concerning ifThe next earnings report shows results worse than what analysts expect.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial performance. It also means better efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss per share reported at ($0.29) or less.
Worry ifNet loss per share reported worse than ($0.23).
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the previous earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 2026 earnings were higher than expected.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings were lower than expected.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$365 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $690 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,817 loss on $10,000 · 38.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This range confirms strong demand for edge AI and shows continued growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reported within the range of $36.0 million to $37.0 million.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $36.0 million.
Why it matters: This margin range shows good cost control. It helps make more money while growing.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported between 46.5% and 47.5%.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin falls below 46.5%.
Why it matters: Controlling costs is important for financial health. Higher costs may show bad cost management.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating expenses are between $21M and $22M.
Worry ifOperating costs are more than $22M.