Amkor Technology (AMKR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.77+1.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMKR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
AMKR — capital allocation — The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)…
Dated 2026-05-05
The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), in transactions not involving any public offering. The Notes were resold by the initial purchasers to persons whom the initial purchasers reasonably believe are “qualified institutional buyers,” as defined in, and in accordance with, Rule 144A under the Securities Act. Any shares of the Company’s common stock that may be issued upon conversion of t…
Why it matters: Expanding capacity is key for meeting demand in AI and automotive markets. Progress here would signal strong future growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement says they have finished a new packaging plant.
Worry ifNo news on capacity expansion or delays.
Why it matters: Partnerships are key for Amkor's growth in advanced packaging. Updates will show if they are expanding their market reach.
Supportive ifNew partnerships are announced. They improve Amkor's advanced packaging skills.
Worry ifNo new partnerships are made, or current ones end.
Why it matters: The notes will fund operations. Their effect on growth will show if capital allocation is effective.
Supportive ifRevenue growth accelerates by at least 10% in the next year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains flat or declines despite the funding.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Amkor wants to grow and expand its capacity.
Supportive ifCapital spending is at or above $2.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $2.5 billion for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$340 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $755 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,432 loss on $10,000 · 54.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This offering may change Amkor's capital structure and funding for growth. It is important to watch its effects.
Watch forA positive market reaction or more investment in growth after the offering.
Also watch forA negative market reaction or not using funds well for growth.
Why it matters: Stable or higher dividends show good finances and care for shareholders. This helps investors feel positive.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend payment stays at $0.08352 or goes up.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend payment is cut or stopped.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy can show management's trust in cash flow and future earnings. This is important for investors.
Watch forA news release about a bigger dividend or a special dividend payment.
Also watch forAn announcement of a dividend cut or suspension.
Why it matters: Better margins mean improved cost management and pricing power. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin for Q3 2026 meets or exceeds 18.5%.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 18.5%, suggesting cost pressures or pricing issues.
Why it matters: Updates on revenue growth will indicate if Amkor is on track to meet its long-term targets. This is critical for investor sentiment.
Supportive ifAmkor gives guidance showing revenue growth speeding up to $9 billion by 2028.
Worry ifAmkor lowers its guidance. This shows ongoing challenges in reaching growth.
Why it matters: The use of proceeds from the notes will show how Amkor plans to allocate capital for growth. This is crucial for future performance.
Watch forAmkor says the money from the notes helps fund growth.
Also watch forAmkor states that proceeds from the notes are not used for growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show financial strength. This can help build investor trust.
Supportive ifAmkor maintains or increases its dividend per share.
Worry ifAmkor cuts its dividend per share.
Why it matters: This growth would indicate that Amkor is making progress in increasing revenue. It would show that their strategies are starting to pay off.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is 5% or lower year over year.
Why it matters: The buyback could signal confidence in the company's value. It may affect stock price positively.
Supportive ifStock price increases by more than 5% following the buyback announcement.
Worry ifStock price declines or remains flat after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show how well a company is doing. Regular payments mean stability.
Watch forDividends increase or remain stable in the next quarter.
Also watch forDividends decrease or are suspended.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Amkor can maintain its growth momentum. A strong range indicates continued demand in key markets.
Supportive ifNet sales guidance for Q3 2026 is confirmed within the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion.
Worry ifGuidance is below $1.95 billion. This shows weaker demand expectations.
Why it matters: Meeting this capex guidance shows Amkor wants to grow. This is important for future revenue.
Supportive ifCapex reported for 2026 aligns with the guidance of $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion.
Worry ifCapex is significantly below $2.5 billion. This suggests possible cutbacks in growth plans.
Why it matters: Updates on partnerships can show future revenue growth. Strong partnerships help Amkor's packaging strategy.
Watch forWatch for news about new partnerships or updates on Investor Day.
Also watch forNo new partnerships or updates are shared. This shows a slowdown in strategic plans.