Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ameriprise Financial (AMP)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$509.32-3.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
51.78 → 51.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Assets under management grow to $1.7 trillion, up 4% YoY | Ameriprise grows assets under management to $1.7 trillion, up 12% in 2026-Q1. | Intact | YoY asset growth falls below 4% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMP is a wealth-management and financial-services business with robust earnings quality, stable management, and strong recent financial performance. Its multi-year view is intact, but the latest earnings miss has weakened momentum and raises the importance of upcoming results.
The valuation signal is mixed: AMP is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall value assessment is neutral. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not far from the model’s estimate; pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility.
Near term, the recent miss and run of consecutive misses create some risk, although the assessed chance of another miss is low. Across the supplied quarters, revenue rose, advice and wealth management client assets reached $1.231 trillion, and client net inflows excluding Comerica were positive; management also reported substantial capital returns. Expense delivery is less clear, with quarterly Asset Management costs higher year over year despite a full-year expectation for flat costs excluding specified items.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued growth in advice and wealth management assets, client inflows, and disciplined expenses. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum. Lower interest rates are also a risk factor for AMP and other financial companies in the evidence provided.
Over the next one to three years, AMP’s asset-growth and capital-return record supports an intact thesis, but the latest miss and mixed expense evidence call for close attention to execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It returns 88% of operating earnings to shareholders, about $936 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Capital return falls below 80% of operating earnings next year |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During the quarter, we returned 88% of operating earnings to shareholders and today announced an additional 6% increase in our quarterly dividend, further reinforcing our confidence in the business and strong track record of generating shareholder value.”” “• The company increased its return of capital to shareholders to $1.1 billion or 101 percent of adjusted operating earnings in the quarter and $3.4 billion or 88 percent of adjusted operating earnings for the full year, reinforcing its substantial free cash flow generation and capital return track record.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Earnings per share remain above $9.81 in 2026 | Earnings per share remain strong near $44 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $9.81 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $12.32 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9.81 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202612.32 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operational efficiency to support profitability | A supporting condition in Ameriprise Financial's published investment case. The stated target is Show measurable progress in operational efficiency by end of 2026. | Intact | No improvement in operational efficiency by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$49.85 → $51.58 · observed estimates
$20.69B → $21.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $49.85 | $20,687,561,500 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $50.39 | $20,984,711,500 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $50.39 | $20,984,711,500 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $50.72 | $20,894,530,225 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $50.72 | $21,017,336,500 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $51.32 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $51.32 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $51.32 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $51.32 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $51.54 | $21,150,998,860 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $51.54 | $21,013,208,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $51.67 | $21,046,458,395 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $51.57 | $21,032,012,520 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $51.57 | $21,032,012,520 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $51.78 | $21,032,012,520 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $51.62 | $21,032,157,165 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $51.69 | $21,139,137,520 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $51.74 | $21,139,137,520 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $51.74 | $21,139,137,520 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $51.64 | $21,062,964,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $51.64 | $21,062,964,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $51.64 | $21,062,964,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $51.58 | $20,986,858,700 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $51.58 | $20,986,864,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $51.58 | $20,986,864,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $51.58 | $20,986,864,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $51.58 | $20,986,864,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $51.58 | $20,986,864,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $51.58 | $20,986,864,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $51.58 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $51.50 | $21,120,990,389 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $51.55 | $21,120,985,513 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $51.52 | $21,079,734,735 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $51.52 | $21,079,734,735 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $51.55 | $21,033,980,550 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $51.58 | $21,033,980,550 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $51.58 | $21,033,975,525 | 8 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.