Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AmpliTech Group Inc (AMPG)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.20-11.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.08 → 0.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMPG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
No material negative impact from ongoing litigation | A supporting condition in AmpliTech Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is litigation resolved without material financial loss. | Intact | material financial loss or operational disruption from litigation | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth story, not a proven durable compounder, because the company is loss-making and recent performance has been weak. The multi-year view is still developing: revenue targets and commercialization progress are encouraging, but execution remains uncertain.
AMPG is tagged as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is negative, meaning current expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence. The valuation signal has medium confidence, and the snapshot reports low fragility rather than a clear sign that expectations are unusually vulnerable.
Near term, revenue has grown and management remains on track toward its 2026 revenue goal, while recent commercialization progress supports a scaling business. However, the company recently missed earnings, has a run of consecutive misses, and momentum weakened; the next results and any guidance change are important risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on AMPG sustaining revenue growth, converting programs into recurring production revenue, and advancing its 5G O-RAN radio and MMIC programs. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while easier rates or steadier results from larger technology companies could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMPG offers a developing growth thesis with visible execution progress, but losses, repeated earnings misses, and volatile management leave the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in AmpliTech Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $50 million. |
| Broken |
| revenue falls below $35 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $8.07M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20268,070,379 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue recognition weighted to second half of 2026 | The company expects most revenue in the second half of the year. | Intact | less than 50% of revenue recognized in second half of 2026 | Distribution revenue: $2.116M FY2025-Q3; reported segment. Published target: majority of 2026 revenue recognized in H2. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 14, 20252,115,968 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.37 → $0.08 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.37 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.08 | $60,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.