Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04

$28.02+3.32%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.18 → 3.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMPH yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share recovery to consensus estimates	A supporting condition in Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.63 for FY 2026.	Improving	EPS falls below $2.0 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.63 for FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement through cost control	A primary condition in Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating income >= $20M.	Broken	operating income falls below $13M	Operating income: $39.729M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $20M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202639,729,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to at least maintain current levels	A primary condition in Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $171M quarterly revenue.	Recovered	quarterly revenue falls below $171M	Revenue: $183.903M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $171M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026183,903,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount to peers	The company has a cheap valuation with a PE of 7.41 versus peers at 25.16.	Intact	PE rises above 15 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 10.15x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202610.1522 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.17

$3.00 → $3.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.78B

$0.78B → $0.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$3.00	$778,653,228	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.89	$774,861,670	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.89	$774,861,670	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.89	$774,861,670	7 / 6
2026-08-11	$3.05	$784,461,760	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.05	$784,461,760	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.64	$784,405,420	1 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.05	$784,476,582	3 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.05	$784,476,582	1 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.05	$784,476,582	1 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.05	$784,476,582	1 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.05	$784,476,582	1 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.05	$784,476,582	1 / 4
2026-08-20	$3.05	$784,476,582	1 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-25	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-26	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-27	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-28	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-29	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-30	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-08-31	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-09-01	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-09-02	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-09-03	$3.18	$784,427,756	1 / 4
2026-09-04	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-05	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-06	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-07	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-08	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-09	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-10	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-11	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-12	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-16	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-17	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-18	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-19	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-20	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-21	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-22	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-23	$3.18	$784,422,890	1 / 4
2026-10-24	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-10-25	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-10-26	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-10-27	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-10-28	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-10-29	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-10-30	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-10-31	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-11-01	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-11-02	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-11-03	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4
2026-11-04	$3.17	$783,993,072	1 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	6	1
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	6	1
2026-11-01	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share recovery to consensus estimatesDiluted EPS: $0.67 per share
Operating income improvement through cost controlPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth to at least maintain current levelsRevenue: $183.903M
Maintain valuation discount to peersP/E (TTM): 10.15x

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AMPH is a healthcare business with a growth-focused, execution-dependent multi-year view, rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality is neutral and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

AMPH is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation is tagged as justified and has low signs of fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, but the evidence does not specify exactly what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and cash generation appear steady: revenue rose to $183.9 million in 2026-Q2, while cash from operations was stable across the last two quarters. Gross margin improved, but operating income remains under pressure from higher costs, and erratic earnings results make the next report a risk.

What Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued product launches and pipeline progress translating into revenue growth, while operating costs stop limiting income improvement. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be negative; continued strength from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.