Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.18-2.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMPH — director transition
Dated 2026-07-13
Director — Anthony Pierce: The Board appointed Anthony Pierce as a Class III director.
Why it matters: Approval helps Amphastar's plan and opens a large market.
Supportive ifFDA approves the biosimilar insulin. This adds to the product line.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays it. This shows possible problems with the pipeline.
Why it matters: BAQSIMI is a key revenue driver. Continued growth is vital for overall revenue health.
Supportive ifBAQSIMI sales exceed $40 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifBAQSIMI sales fall below $30 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New approvals can boost future revenue and support the company's growth plan.
Supportive ifFDA approval of at least one new product from the pipeline.
Worry ifNo new FDA approvals for pipeline products in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key sign of profit. Meeting expectations can help investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share meet or exceed $0.14.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share fall below $0.14.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$215 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,266 loss on $10,000 · 42.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FDA approvals can greatly increase revenue and market presence. This is key for Amphastar's growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of FDA approval for at least one new product in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo FDA approvals were announced in Q3 2026. This shows there are regulatory problems.
Why it matters: The $100 million payment to Lilly confirms sales strength and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the $100 million payment is made in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe payment is late or not made. This shows weaker sales.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue mark would show growth and support management's plan.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenues are over $190 million. This shows strong growth from new products.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues fall below $180 million, suggesting growth is stalling.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key focus for management. A low growth rate signals ongoing challenges.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow supports investments and growth. A drop could signal operational issues.
Watch forCash from operations exceeds $47M in Q3 2026.
Also watch forCash from operations falls below $47M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth is key for Amphastar's long-term strategy. A strong Q3 would show continued momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue growth exceeds 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue growth is below 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This helps the company make more money.
Watch forOperating income rises to $39.7 million in Q2 2026.
Also watch forOperating income falls to $39.7 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Successful product launches can boost revenue and support Amphastar's growth plans.
Supportive ifAt least one new product from the pipeline is launched and reported in Q3.
Worry ifNo new products are launched. This suggests delays in development.
Why it matters: Missing earnings again would show ongoing problems with financial goals.
Worry ifQ2 earnings miss analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings meet or are better than what analysts expect.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs. This gives more power to set prices against rivals.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 51%. This shows good cost control and pricing plans.
Worry ifGross margin is below 50%. This shows ongoing cost issues.