Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.10-6.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.17 → 0.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMPL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS improves to positive $0.03 to $0.06 in 2026 | EPS is expected to turn positive, reaching up to $0.06 per share. | Under Pressure | EPS stays negative below $0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.19 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.03 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026-0.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMPL is a high-risk growth business, not yet a consistently profitable one. Its long-term thesis is in watch status: customer adoption and ARR are growing, while recent financial performance has been weak and the signal recently shifted to cautious.
AMPL is expensive versus peers, with a 1.54 premium measure and a 0.31 expectations gap. The evidence points to valuation as the main source of fragility, rather than a combined stack of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, revenue and ARR growth show progress on management’s customer-adoption priority, and management has expanded AI product features, though their revenue contribution is not separately shown. The 2026 non-GAAP operating income outlook was raised, but second-quarter GAAP operating income remained negative; recent performance is weak, with an earnings miss in August and a quiet, low estimated miss-risk tier.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued adoption and revenue growth, alongside progress toward positive non-GAAP operating income in 2026. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; lower rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMPL has evidence of growth and product activity, but profitability remains incomplete and performance trails its industry cohort. The long-term thesis hinges on converting adoption into durable financial progress while managing near-term guidance risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Amplitude, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major insider stock sales or leadership departures. |
| Under Pressure |
| Key executives sell large stock amounts or leave suddenly |
CTO sold $178k stock; President departed Feb 2026 CTO sold $178k stock; President departed; recent earnings beat. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Positive non-GAAP operating income of $2.5M to $6.5M in 2026 | The company targets positive operating income of up to $6.5 million this year. | Under Pressure | Operating income remains negative below $0 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"We delivered another quarter of growth with leverage achieving revenue growth of 25% with our highest non-GAAP operating margin in company history," said Andrew Casey, CFO of Amplitude.” “"We continue to deliver consistent execution on our core business as we rapidly innovate for the next generation of builders.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $400 million in fiscal 2026 | Amplitude aims to grow revenue to about $400 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $340 million in FY26 | Revenue: $110.644M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$400 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026110,644,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.13 → $0.17 · observed estimates
$0.46B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.13 | $461,828,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.16 | $470,747,642 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.16 | $473,284,320 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.16 | $473,284,320 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.16 | $473,284,320 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.17 | $474,624,100 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.17 | $474,620,440 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.16 | $472,859,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.17 | $477,152,042 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.17 | $477,302,665 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.17 | $477,302,665 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.17 | $477,302,665 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.17 | $477,302,665 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.17 | $477,302,665 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.17 | $477,302,665 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.17 | $477,302,665 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.17 | $477,302,829 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.