Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.19+2.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 51.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMPL — director transition
Dated 2026-10-15
Director — Vijaye Raji: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director to a newly created seat, which is a routine board composition change rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Statsig added $17 million in ARR in Q2, while the core business added $19 million. A smaller Statsig gain could weaken the growth case for the deal.
Worry ifA later results release shows Statsig added less ARR than Amplitude's core business. Or total ARR growth is below 22% year over year.
Less concerning ifStatsig adds at least as much ARR as the core business, and total ARR growth stays at or above 22%.
Why it matters: The sector data says IT growth is easing and flags revenue below its median as a key change. A drop in Amplitude's growth would add to that pressure.
Worry ifAmplitude's reported year-over-year revenue growth falls below its prior rate of 17%. Sector revenue growth also falls below its median.
Less concerning ifAmplitude's revenue growth stays at or above 17%, and the sector's revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: That is the low end of Amplitude's Q3 revenue range. A miss would break the growth pace seen in Q2.
Worry ifOn November 4, Q3 revenue is below $105.6 million. Or, the company cuts its full-year revenue range below $407.2 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $105.6 million and the full-year range stays at $407.2 million or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$216 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $662 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,302 loss on $10,000 · 53.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.