Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.02-3.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMPL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Amplitude, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange A…
Why it matters: Better EPS boosts investor confidence and shows higher profits.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS of $0.03 or higher for 2026.
Worry ifEPS guidance remains negative or does not improve from -$0.17 in Q1.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger market position for Amplitude.
Watch forAmplitude reports revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth is slowing down to below 4% each year.
Why it matters: Higher EPS means Amplitude is getting closer to making money. This affects investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS reported between $0.03 and $0.06.
Worry ifQ2 EPS remains negative or below $0.03.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could impact Amplitude's performance. It reflects broader market trends.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$247 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $662 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,439 loss on $10,000 · 54.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows Amplitude's growth momentum is strong. It confirms the company is on track to reach its annual revenue target.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $105.6 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $105.6 million.
Why it matters: Better non-GAAP net income per share shows higher profits. This could help investor trust.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP net income per share is reported between $0.02 and $0.03.
Worry ifNon-GAAP net income per share remains negative or does not improve.
Why it matters: Achieving positive non-GAAP operating income is a key goal for Amplitude. It shows progress in managing costs.
Supportive ifIn Q2, non-GAAP operating income was $2.5 million to $6.5 million.
Worry ifQ2 non-GAAP operating income is less than $2.5 million.
Why it matters: A slowdown in this area may show problems with keeping or gaining customers.
Worry ifNumber of customers with $100,000 or greater in ARR reported below 824.
Less concerning ifNumber of customers with $100,000 or greater in ARR reported at or above 824.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance of $397M to $403M shows Amplitude is growing.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at or above $397 million for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $397 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Amplitude is cutting costs. It is moving closer to making money.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating income is $2.5 million or more.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating loss is more than $(1.6) million.
Why it matters: Going above this target shows strong customer loyalty. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAnnual recurring revenue is more than $410 million.
Worry ifAnnual recurring revenue is less than $410 million.