Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Amprius Technologies, Inc. (AMPX)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.52-11.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.05 → 0.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMPX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4M in 2026 | Management targets positive adjusted EBITDA of $4M. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a durable profit compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is improving but still unproven: revenue guidance has risen, while positive adjusted EBITDA has not yet been achieved.
The valuation is about 3.9 times above peers, with a low-confidence model and a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence. The snapshot labels what is priced in as justified and fragility as low, but those signals do not remove the gap between growth expectations and current weak, loss-making results.
Near term, revenue growth and the raised 2026 outlook support the operating story, while adjusted EBITDA improved from a loss of $1.8 million to a loss of $1.0 million but remains negative. Management is still targeting at least $4 million of adjusted EBITDA and capital expenditure below $10 million for 2026; the company has not yet demonstrated that it can meet the profitability target. Recent performance is weak versus its industry cohort, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The key company-level test is whether AMPX delivers on its raised revenue outlook and reaches positive adjusted EBITDA without reversing guidance. A reversal would also damage management credibility. Sector conditions matter: continued strong results and higher guidance from ETN, VRT, and BE would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on turning revenue growth into sustained profitability while maintaining management credibility in a high-risk, weak-performance setting. The current evidence is mixed, so the long-term thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=10 USD_MILLIONS. |
| Intact |
| Capital expenditure exceeds $12M in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $1.819M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=10 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,819,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our updated guidance reflects the increased visibility that we’re developing as we execute the first innings of this revenue ramp.”” “• Delivered GAAP gross margin of 27%, improving from 20% in Q1 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Maintain stable leadership and confidence | A supporting condition in Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major insider stock sales or fraud allegations. | Under Pressure | New fraud allegations or large insider stock sales occur | Fraud alleged (May 2026) + $320k insider sale May 2026 news reports fraud allegations and a director selling $320,252 in stock. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $130M revenue in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=130 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $100M in FY26 | Revenue: $34.032M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=130 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202634,032,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.06 → $0.04 · observed estimates
$0.21B → $0.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.06 | $207,310,700 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.06 | $211,062,273 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $211,510,200 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $211,510,200 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.10 | $211,510,200 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.10 | $211,510,200 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $211,510,200 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.10 | $211,510,200 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.06 | $211,062,273 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.06 | $211,062,273 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.06 | $211,062,273 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.06 | $211,062,273 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.06 | $211,062,273 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.06 | $211,062,273 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $213,471,818 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $213,099,091 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.05 | $213,129,727 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.04 | $213,157,583 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.