Amprius Technologies, Inc. (AMPX)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.89+2.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMPX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 259.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 65.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 193.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMPX — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. The contents…
Why it matters: Going over this capex may show overspending or problems with expansion.
Worry ifCapital spending was under $10 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending was over $10 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Getting large contracts would prove Amprius's place in the market and its growth.
Supportive ifNew contracts or orders over $100 million have been announced.
Worry ifNo big new contracts have been announced. This suggests limited market success.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is growing and if profits are rising.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth and positive EBITDA.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows continued losses and revenue decline.
Why it matters: New contracts would validate Amprius's position in the defense sector and drive revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts exceeding $10 million from U.S. defense customers.
Worry ifNo new contracts were announced. This suggests weakness in defense demand.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$413 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $980 loss on $10,000 · 9.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,316 loss on $10,000 · 63.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows better financial health. It also helps how investors feel.
Supportive ifQ2 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was $4M or more.
Worry ifQ2 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA is still negative. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Higher contract value means strong customer ties and more money coming in.
Supportive ifThe Stark Future contract is announced. It is worth over $100 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a drop in contract value may mean problems ahead.
Why it matters: Improving margins would reflect better cost control and pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 28% in Q3 2026. This shows the company is efficient.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 27%, suggesting cost pressures.
Why it matters: New contracts would show Amprius's ability to capture market share and drive revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new contract valued at over $20 million in the drone sector.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in the drone market for the next quarter.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows faster, it could help Amprius. The company is in a sector that is growing slowly.
Supportive ifReports show that revenue growth in the industrial sector may rise above 5%.
Worry ifThe sector growth may keep slowing down with no signs of recovery.
Why it matters: A raised revenue outlook shows strong growth momentum. It signals confidence in meeting targets.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue outlook raised to at least $130M in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the revenue outlook to below $130M.
Why it matters: Finishing this expansion would increase production and help revenue grow.
Supportive ifThe pilot line expansion activities are now complete.
Worry ifThere are delays in the pilot line expansion. This may show operational issues.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows continued strong demand and growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue of at least $34 million, sustaining the growth trend from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $30 million, indicating a slowdown in demand.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows better financial health. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA is positive. This means the company is doing well.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA is negative. This means the company has financial issues.