Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Amplify Energy Corp (AMPY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.18-8.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.43 → 0.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMPY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital investment remains within $45-$65 million in 2026 | A supporting condition in Amplify Energy Corp's published investment case. The stated target is between $45 million and $65 million. | Intact | Capital investment exceeds $65 million or falls below $45 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $23.217M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $45 million and $65 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202623,217,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, cyclical energy business, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: operations show some progress, but recent performance is weak and management execution has been volatile.
AMPY screens cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low and the business remains loss-making. The evidence describes the current pricing as justified, with sector turbulence rather than a broader stack of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals; the expectations gap is negative.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after repeated misses and a lowered outlook, despite a prior quarterly beat. Over the multi-year view, Beta field development and an expected annual $5 million reduction in lease operating expenses could support operations, while capital spending remains within guidance; delivery is mixed.
A key favorable signal would be a guidance increase next quarter after the recent reduction. The thesis also depends on progress at Beta and Bairoil, while results and guidance from major energy companies could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMPY’s long-term thesis rests on improved execution and continued operational progress, but weak results and elevated near-term earnings risk leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Cash interest expense stays between $3-$4 million in 2026 | Management targets controlled cash interest expense of $3-$4M in 2026. | Intact | Cash interest expense falls outside $3-$4 million range in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue meets or exceeds $171 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Amplify Energy Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $171 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $171 million in FY26 | Revenue: $52.686M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $171 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202652,686,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.07 → $0.43 · observed estimates
$0.20B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.92 | $192,897,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.07 | $201,792,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.43 | $179,195,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.