Amplify Energy Corp (AMPY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.900.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMPY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMPY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof and regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, except to t…
Why it matters: Production rates from these wells will show how well Amplify's drilling program is doing at Beta.
Watch forC29 and C16 wells report peak initial production rates above 500 Bopd.
Also watch forC29 and C16 wells report peak initial production rates below 500 Bopd.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Amplify meets its guidance and improves cash flow.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive cash flow and improved revenue compared to Q1.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows negative cash flow. Revenue is also going down.
Why it matters: More capital investment shows trust in growth. It also shows faith in new projects.
Supportive ifTotal capital investment is $65 million or more for 2026.
Worry ifTotal capital investment will be less than $45 million in 2026.
Why it matters: The repurchase program shows management's confidence in the stock's value. It may support share price.
Supportive ifThe company says it has started buying back shares under the approved plan.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased by the end of the program period on December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: When management is confident, it can change how investors feel. Steady guidance shows stability.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full-year 2026 guidance in the earnings call or press release.
Worry ifManagement lowers full-year 2026 guidance. This may show problems with operations.
Why it matters: Production levels will show if the recent royalty relief boosts output as expected.
Supportive ifBeta field production increases by over 600 barrels of oil per day compared to Q1.
Worry ifBeta field production does not increase or declines compared to Q1 levels.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well a company is doing. They also show how it works.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better profit numbers than in past quarters.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses or bad trends in important numbers.
Why it matters: Royalty relief could greatly boost production and revenue at Beta.
Supportive ifProduction at Beta increases by over 600 bbls/d due to royalty relief.
Worry ifProduction does not rise as expected, even with royalty relief.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial after a drop in Q1. A rebound signals improved operational performance.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $37.5 million. This shows a recovery in production and pricing.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $37.5 million. This shows ongoing problems in production or pricing.
Why it matters: If production stays the same or goes up, it shows stability. This means the company can grow.
Supportive ifQ3 average daily production is reported at or above 6.8 Mbopd.
Worry ifIn Q3, average daily production is less than 6.4 Mbopd.
Why it matters: A return to revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the business environment. It could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 3% year over year in 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 3% year over year, showing ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Lower interest costs help overall profits. They also help manage cash flow.
Supportive ifCash interest expense is below $4 million for 2026.
Worry ifCash interest expense is above $4 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance may show better cost control and profit potential.
Supportive ifManagement cuts lease operating costs to less than $80 million for 2026.
Worry ifManagement raises lease operating costs to more than $95 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If Amplify Energy grows its revenue, it could mean good news for the energy sector.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing the C55 well will show if the drilling program is successful. This could boost production and revenue.
Supportive ifThe C55 well is completed and shows strong production rates above 500 Bopd.
Worry ifThe C55 well is not completed or shows weak production rates below 500 Bopd.
Why it matters: More production at Beta would show that recent drilling and royalty relief worked.
Supportive ifBeta produces more than 7 Mbopd each day.
Worry ifProduction at Beta remains below 6.8 Mbopd.
Why it matters: Lower lease operating costs from the CO2 deal could help profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifLease operating costs drop by about $5 million each year as expected.
Worry ifLease operating costs do not drop as planned or go up instead.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program could signal management's confidence in the stock's value. This may support share prices.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished buying back shares worth $15 million.
Worry ifNo updates on the buyback program or a cancellation of the program.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $548 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,465 loss on $10,000 · 44.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.