Amplify Energy Corp (AMPY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.18-8.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMPY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMPY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof and regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, except to t…
Why it matters: The amended deal is set to cut yearly costs by about $5 million. The next results can show whether the savings reach reported costs.
Supportive ifA later report shows Bairoil lease costs falling in line with the stated $5 million annual savings.
Worry ifA later report says the deal did not cut costs, or Bairoil lease costs do not fall as planned.
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow was negative despite higher production and lower costs. The next report will test whether cash use is easing.
Watch forQ3 free cash flow is above minus $12.9 million, the Q2 level.
Also watch forQ3 free cash flow is at or below minus $12.9 million.
Why it matters: With fewer California refinery outlets, marketing costs rose and Amplify got a lower oil price. New routes could ease the strain.
Watch forA company update says an offshore buoy, pipeline link, or trucking route is in service. Marketing deductions also fell from Q2.
Also watch forNo new route is in service, and marketing deductions stay high or rise from Q2.
Why it matters: The lower royalty rate added over 600 barrels per day to net output. Relief depends on price and production thresholds.
Watch forThe next report says the Beta royalty rate remains near 12.5%, with relief still adding over 600 barrels per day.
Also watch forThe next report says the royalty rate returns near 25%, or relief no longer adds net production.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $581 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,204 loss on $10,000 · 52.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: C29 and C16 each had peak rates above 500 barrels per day. Q3 results will show whether the wells lift net output.
Supportive ifQ3 average production rises above Q2's 6.8 thousand barrels per day. Management links the gain to C29 and C16.
Worry ifQ3 average production is at or below 6.8 thousand barrels per day, or the new wells fall short of expected rates.