Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$143.27-6.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.22 → 14.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow improves to at least $29 million per quarter | The company is stabilizing revenue near $525 million per quarter. | Intact | Operating cash flow falls below $29 million in any quarter | Cash from operations: $39.864M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=29 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202639,864,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical coal business with elevated risk, rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort, and confidence has eased to medium.
The valuation evidence describes AMR as cheap versus peers, but also shows a negative expectations gap, meaning the market’s assumptions appear more cautious than the model’s view. The evidence does not establish that the shares are clearly undervalued, and the valuation model has medium confidence.
Near term, volumes and met coal revenue remain pressured by the DTA disruption, while the raised annual cost range shows limited progress against cost goals despite lower unit costs in the second quarter. Recent earnings beats provide a positive signal, but the record of weak performance and erratic surprises keeps execution risk elevated over the next few quarters.
The multi-year view hinges on whether AMR restores shipments and contains costs as the DTA disruption affects delivery. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while their misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, AMR’s thesis depends on improving volumes and cost execution, with sector conditions adding a meaningful swing factor. Recent beats are encouraging, but they have not yet resolved the weak operating trend. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=101 USD per ton. |
| Broken |
| Cost per ton exceeds $101 for multiple quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income loss narrows toward zero | Operating income improved from -$21.3 million to -$10.4 million in one quarter. | Improving | Operating loss worsens beyond -$10.4 million | Operating income: $-10.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss > -10.4 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026-10,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue remains stable near $525 million per quarter | The company is stabilizing revenue near $525 million per quarter. | Broken | Revenue falls below $520 million in any quarter | Revenue: $492.856M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=520 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026492,856,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Continue share buybacks under $1.5 billion program | It is also buying back shares under a $1.5 billion program. | Intact | Share repurchases stall or stop | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.79 → $14.81 · observed estimates
$2.66B → $2.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.79 | $2,664,606,801 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $17.79 | $2,664,606,801 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $17.54 | $2,665,228,257 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $17.54 | $2,665,228,257 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $17.54 | $2,665,228,257 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $17.54 | $2,665,228,257 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $17.93 | $2,665,235,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $17.60 | $2,661,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $28.25 | $2,686,760,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $25.30 | $2,665,635,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $25.30 | $2,665,635,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $17.60 | $2,661,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $17.60 | $2,661,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $17.60 | $2,661,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $17.60 | $2,661,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $17.60 | $2,661,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $17.60 | $2,661,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.36 | $2,644,635,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.27 | $2,617,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.27 | $2,617,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.27 | $2,617,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.27 | $2,617,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.27 | $2,617,535,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.27 | $2,617,455,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.27 | $2,617,455,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.27 | $2,617,455,108 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.22 | $2,579,344,877 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.50 | $2,597,006,142 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.50 | $2,597,006,142 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.45 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.45 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.45 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.44 | $2,593,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.99 | $2,577,909,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.81 | $2,577,889,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.81 | $2,577,889,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.81 | $2,577,889,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.81 | $2,577,889,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.81 | $2,577,889,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.81 | $2,577,889,522 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.81 | $2,577,889,522 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.