Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$143.27-6.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers
AMR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-08
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The sector signal says materials revenue has been shrinking. A return to growth would mark a change in that trend.
Supportive ifThe sector data show materials revenue growth above 0%.
Worry ifThe sector data continue to show negative revenue growth.
Why it matters: Costs remain a key pressure. Q3 met coal cost was $106.93 per ton, while the 2026 guide is $103 to $107.
Worry ifQ4 met coal cost per ton is above $106.93, or full-year cost exceeds the $107 top of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 met coal cost per ton is below $103, and full-year cost stays within the $103 to $107 guide.
Why it matters: AMR plans to share final Q3 results and its 2027 outlook. The release can show whether cost pressure and market swings persist.
Watch forFinal Q3 results show EBITDA above $29.4 million, and the 2027 outlook points to lower costs or stronger shipments.
Also watch forFinal Q3 EBITDA falls below $29.4 million, or the 2027 outlook points to higher costs or fewer shipments.
Why it matters: Q3 prices reflected recent market swings. Higher realized prices can support results even as costs stay high.
Supportive ifQ4 met coal realization rises above $121.09 per ton.
Worry ifQ4 met coal realization falls below $118.71 per ton, AMR's Q2 level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $563 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,506 loss on $10,000 · 45.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.