Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$225.41+3.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-08
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Changes in pricing can affect how stable revenue is. Watching these changes helps us understand the market.
Watch forA big rise in the amount of coal sold at higher prices.
Also watch forAn increase in the percentage of coal sold at lower pricing mechanisms.
Why it matters: Changes in sales volume guidance show how well Alpha handles market challenges.
Worry ifManagement raises Q3 coal sales volume guidance to more than 14 million tons.
Less concerning ifManagement lowers Q3 coal sales volume guidance to less than 13 million tons.
Why it matters: The repair timeline affects coal exports and revenue. Delays can hurt operations.
Worry ifDTA will announce a repair timeline for the damaged stacker reclaimer next month.
Less concerning ifNo updates on the repair timeline for over a month. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Updates on repairs will show how fast Alpha can return to normal at DTA.
Watch forRepairs are done. The equipment is working again.
Also watch forMore delays in repairs or longer downtime announced.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $531 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,506 loss on $10,000 · 45.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If coal sales go down, it shows less pricing power in a weak market.
Worry ifQ2 coal sales realization falls below $118.71 per ton.
Less concerning ifCoal sales realization stays above $118.71 per ton.
Why it matters: Increased cash flow will show Alpha's ability to create cash despite ongoing losses.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $39.9 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $39.9 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Shipment volumes are crucial for revenue. A decline below this level would indicate ongoing market weakness.
Worry ifQ2 shipment volumes were below 3.5 million tons.
Less concerning ifQ2 shipment volumes reported at or above 3.5 million tons.
Why it matters: Negative growth shows worse market conditions and may affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $524 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $524 million.
Why it matters: The share buyback plan shows that management is confident. Updates will show they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced buying back more shares beyond the 7.0 million already purchased.
Worry ifNo further share repurchases announced or a pause in the program.
Why it matters: Earnings will show if revenue and costs stabilize. This impacts investor confidence.
Watch forThe Q2 earnings report shows more revenue and fewer losses than Q1.
Also watch forThe Q2 earnings report shows less revenue and more losses than Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in cost guidance will show how well Alpha is managing expenses in tough markets.
Watch forManagement lowers cost of coal sales guidance below $103 per ton.
Also watch forManagement raises cost of coal sales guidance above $107 per ton.