Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.15-9.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.67 → 1.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures between $300M and $350M in 2026 | A supporting condition in Ameresco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $300M to $350M. | Intact | Capex falls below $300M or exceeds $350M in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $230.514M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $300M to $350M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026230,514,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMRC is a higher-risk growth and execution story in a sector facing headwinds. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding up relative to its industry, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: AMRC is described as cheap versus peers, yet it carries a sizable premium to them and is rated expensive overall. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says the weakness in execution quality is already reflected to a limited degree. The evidence does not show that all business risks are priced in.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose year over year in the second quarter, and management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance ranges. That supports progress toward its stated targets, although the snapshot notes a recent quarterly miss and fragile earnings quality. CFO transitions, a high-risk sector backdrop, and mixed progress on the biofuels joint venture remain execution concerns.
The next test is whether AMRC maintains its reaffirmed revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance; a cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, progress in biofuels and consistent delivery matter, while earnings and guidance from sector peers PWR, FIX, and EME could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on continued delivery against 2026 targets and better evidence of reliable execution, despite a recent miss and management transitions. The business case remains intact, but the mixed signal and expensive overall valuation leave meaningful risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Ameresco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 17%. |
| Improving |
| gross margin falls below 15.5% in 2026 |
Gross margin: 17.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 17%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202617.713555 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Non-GAAP EPS between $1.06 and $1.28 in 2026 | The company targets non-GAAP EPS between $1.06 and $1.28 for 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.06 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on our updated view, we now expect a tax benefit rate in the range of (25%) to (40%), which increases our Non-GAAP EPS guidance range to be $1.15 to $1.35.” “Net income attributable to common shareholders was $9.7 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, while Non-GAAP EPS was $0.20.” Diluted EPS was $0.18 in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches at least $2.0 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Ameresco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.0 billion. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $2.0 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $515.464M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.0 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026515,464,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.66 → $1.68 · observed estimates
$2.28B → $2.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.66 | $2,283,705,970 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.66 | $2,293,913,800 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.74 | $2,316,728,470 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.74 | $2,316,728,470 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.74 | $2,316,728,470 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.74 | $2,316,728,470 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.74 | $2,316,728,470 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.74 | $2,316,728,470 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.77 | $2,323,312,872 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.70 | $2,312,545,132 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.67 | $2,312,586,799 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.67 | $2,312,628,466 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.67 | $2,312,628,466 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.67 | $2,312,628,941 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.68 | $2,312,628,466 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.