Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.15+1.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMRC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-19
CFO — Mark A. Chiplock: The CFO is resigning to pursue other opportunities, and the company has not yet named a successor, creating a leadership vacuum.
Why it matters: Updates on partnerships can signal growth opportunities and market expansion. They are key for future revenue.
Supportive ifNew partnerships or progress on current ones may be announced.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news about partnerships.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating EPS guidance is key for investor trust. It shows progress to make money.
Supportive ifQ2 non-GAAP EPS reported between $1.06 and $1.28.
Worry ifQ2 non-GAAP EPS was below $1.06. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Staying within capex guidance shows smart spending and support for growth.
Watch forCapex spending reported between $300 million and $350 million for Q3.
Also watch forCapex spending reported below $300 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Staying within this capex range shows smart spending. It helps support growth plans.
Watch forCapex reported within the $300M to $350M range.
Also watch forCapex reported outside the $300M to $350M range.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$304 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $668 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,718 loss on $10,000 · 57.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well the company is doing and managing costs. Meeting this range shows good operational efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 reported within the range of $58 million to $62 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $58 million. This shows there are problems with operations.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows strong operations and good cost control.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported within the range of $1.15 to $1.35.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported below $1.15.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows the company's ability to grow in a competitive market. It reflects demand for its services.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at or above $2.1 billion for FY 2026.
Worry ifRevenue is below $2.0 billion. This shows weaker demand or execution.
Why it matters: This will show if the growth momentum can continue or if it is slowing down.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth at or above 9% year over year.
Why it matters: Progress in this joint venture could drive growth in the biofuels segment.
Supportive ifNew contracts or revenue from Neogenyx Fuels are announced.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the joint venture's progress.
Why it matters: Meeting the capex guidance of $300M to $350M is crucial for future growth. Deviations may signal financial strain.
Supportive ifCapex reported in line with the $300M to $350M guidance during the next earnings report.
Worry ifCapex is reported well under $300M. This shows possible funding issues.
Why it matters: This shows if efficiency is dropping or if costs are going up.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $58 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA at or above $58 million.
Why it matters: Strong backlog growth shows high demand. It gives a clear view of future revenue, especially in data centers.
Supportive ifAwarded project backlog growth reported at over 30% YoY.
Worry ifProject backlog growth is below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into financial health and progress towards goals.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a return to profit with positive net income.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses or negative trends.
Why it matters: Improved revenue growth is key to reaching the $2.1 billion target for 2026. A strong Q2 would indicate better performance after a decline in Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds $500 million, showing a positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is still under $400 million. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: The EPS guidance shows Ameresco is likely to grow profits.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.15 to $1.35 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers Non-GAAP EPS guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: Non-GAAP EPS helps us see how much profit Ameresco makes and its financial health.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported at or above $0.18 for Q2 2026, indicating progress.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS is below $0.15 for Q2 2026. This shows profit challenges.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS target shows strong earnings growth. It supports growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 Non-GAAP EPS reported at $0.20 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 Non-GAAP EPS reported below $0.20.